California Population Will Remain Stagnant Through 2060, State Forecast Projects

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D.) / Getty Images
July 26, 2023

New projections from the California government suggest the state will see little population growth through 2060, a far less optimistic outlook than previous forecasts.

The data from the California Department of Finance show a predicted population of 39.51 million in 2060. The state currently has a population of 39.24 million and had projected it would reach 45 million people by 2060 in previous years. At 39.52 million, California's 2020 population is higher than its projected 2060 number.

The projections also show California reaching 40 million people in 2050, a far cry from the state's 2007 projection that it would have a population of 59.5 million in that year.

The state posted its first population loss in 2020, as crime increased and pandemic measures were some of the strictest in the nation.

Crime is up in many of the state's major cities. Homicides in San Francisco increased nearly 40 percent from 2020 to 2022 and deaths from fentanyl spiked. Los Angeles saw an 11 percent increase in its crime rate in 2022.

San Francisco lost more than 50,000 residents last year—marking the highest population decrease for any major U.S. city.

"L.A. is finished," rapper Curtis "50 Cent" Jackson said earlier this month after Los Angeles County reinstated a zero-bail policy for people charged with nonviolent felonies.

Earlier this month, a man reported as homeless attacked a Santa Monica city councilman. The man was charged with battery and grand theft, marking his third felony arrest in less than three weeks. He had been released twice from Los Angeles County jail on felony charges days before the attack.

Progressive prosecutors bankrolled by billionaire megadonor George Soros have piled on to the crime increase by refusing to convict criminals and giving lenient sentences when they do.

Alameda County district attorney Pamela Price, who is facing a recall effort after just six months in office, said this month that her job "has no impact on crime."

Democrats are meanwhile focused on increasing government control, including by restarting a commission that gives the state the power to set wages in certain industries. Experts are warning the move could kill jobs and hurt small businesses.

Published under: California