Virginia In Play as Poll Shows Trump and Biden Tied

(Getty Images)
May 29, 2024

A poll released Wednesday shows President Joe Biden tied with presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate has won in the past four presidential elections.

If a head-to-head matchup were held in Virginia today, Biden and Trump would both get 42 percent of the vote, according to the poll conducted by Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research between May 12 and May 21. 

The Democratic incumbent would hold a slim 2-point lead over the former president—40 percent to 38 percent—with the inclusion of third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West.

The Wednesday poll came on the heels of several abysmal polls for Biden. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll last week revealed Biden is trailing Trump by 6 points nationally, while a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll last week and a New York Times poll earlier this month both found Trump ahead of the Democratic incumbent in five anticipated swing states.

A loss in Virginia, a state that has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020, could doom Biden’s reelection bid.

"These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November," said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, "but five months is an eternity in politics."

"Still, it seems that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has all but disappeared," Wilson added.