Trump Leads Biden in All But One Swing State: Poll

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May 13, 2024

A poll released Monday shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in five of six anticipated swing states in the 2024 presidential election.

If a head-to-head matchup were held today in battleground states, Trump would lose to Biden in Michigan by 1 percentage point but come out ahead in Nevada by 13 points, in Georgia by 9 points, in Arizona by 6 points, in Pennsylvania by 3 points, and in Wisconsin by 1 point, according to the Monday poll of likely voters by the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College.

The poll, conducted from April 28 to May 9, shows that Trump is leading Biden 51 percent to 38 percent in Nevada, 50 percent to 41 percent in Georgia, 49 percent to 43 percent in Arizona, 48 percent to 45 percent in Pennsylvania, and 47 percent to 46 percent in Wisconsin. The only exception is Michigan, where Biden leads 47 percent to 46 percent.

Americans continued to identify the economy as their top concern, with over half of respondents rating the economy under Biden’s leadership as "poor" and only 3 percent describing today’s economic conditions as "excellent." Fifty-eight percent said they would trust Trump to do a better job on the economy, while 36 percent said the same for Biden.

The Monday findings are consistent with a Wall Street Journal poll in April, which found Trump ahead of Biden in six of the seven swing states the publication identified. In all seven battleground states, negative views of Biden’s job performance exceeded positive views by 16 points or more.

Respondents to the Journal’s poll were most concerned about the 81-year-old incumbent’s mental capacities as well as his handling of the economy and the migrant crisis, with the Republican nominee enjoying an average lead of nearly 20 points on the three issues.