Silver Discusses Clinton's Polling Vulnerabilities Heading Into Election Day

November 6, 2016

Statistician Nate Silver Discussed Clinton's vulnerabilities in the polls heading into election day with ABC's George Stephanopoulos on Sunday morning.

Silver, the founder of the date site FiveThirtyEight, said Hillary Clinton showed a "three-point lead nationally" but "the electoral college map is less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago, where four years ago we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320-some electoral votes."

Then Silver noted that Clinton falls behind where Obama was in the polls four years ago.

"Clinton is a lot weaker in the Midwest, where four years ago President Obama was leading in Ohio by four points," Silver said.

Stephanopoulos asked Silver why his current polls are "more bullish for Donald Trump and more cautious on Hillary."

"Look, you have some forecasts that show Clinton with a 98 or 99 percent chance of winning. That doesn't pass a commonsense test," Silver replied.

Silver then said it's true Democrats have the larger base but the weakest part of group may be the African-American vote, who turned out in record numbers for President Obama in 2008 and 2012. They have showed far less enthusiasm in 2016 for Clinton, in spite of Obama's endorsement and constant stumping on the campaign trail.

"If they turn out in big numbers and better signs in Florida and North Carolina recently, then she's in a pretty safe position," Silver said, but he noted she could be in trouble if they don't because, "there is a big white working-class vote for Trump."