Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden in 6 of 7 Swing States

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April 3, 2024

A Wall Street Journal poll released on Tuesday shows Republican nominee Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in 6 of the 7 anticipated swing states in the 2024 presidential election. 

If an election including independent and third-party candidates were held today, Biden would win Wisconsin by 3 percentage points but lose to Trump in North Carolina by 8 points, in Arizona and Nevada by 4 to 5 points, and in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by 2 to 3 points, according to the Journal's poll conducted in mid-March. 

The poll also finds that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump would be tied with Biden in Wisconsin while retaining a similar lead in the other six swing states. 

Voters are most concerned about the 81-year-old incumbent’s mental capacities as well as his handling of the economy and the migrant crisis, with Trump enjoying an average lead of nearly 20 points over Biden on those 3 issues. 

In all seven swing states, negative views of Biden’s job performance exceed positive views by 16 percentage points or more. 

In 2020, Biden won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—all of which had backed Trump in 2016—while barely winning Georgia and Arizona. The president also won Nevada but has since lost ground in the state. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by just over 1 point.