Venezuela’s ruling socialist party is expected to suffer significant losses in the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday but is unlikely to relinquish power, analysts say, an outcome that could lead to more instability and violence in the impoverished nation.
Since the authoritarian leader Hugo Chavez was elected president of Venezuela in 1998, the socialists have maintained public support through subsidies financed by the country’s vast oil reserves. However, low crude prices and years of economic mismanagement by the socialists have caught up with Venezuela’s economy, which is set to shrink by 10 percent this year.
Polls indicate that less than a quarter of Venezuelans support current President Nicolas Maduro, who has defended Chavez’s so-called socialist revolution and continued his virulent anti-American rhetoric, amid the difficult economic climate. Import and currency controls imposed by the government have resulted in food shortages and a burgeoning black market for goods at highly inflated prices. Venezuelans earn an average of about $12 a month, and more than three quarters live in poverty.
Poor residents have also suffered from a surge in crime. At one private school south of Caracas, a gang member murdered a teacher this year and students recently found a man shot to death at the school’s entrance, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Yet despite polls that show waning support for Maduro, his control of Venezuela’s political system and other factors favor continued rule by his party. That would also mean further resistance by Venezuela to U.S. interests in the region, including counterterrorism efforts and cutting off the flow of drugs into America.
Maduro’s regime has rejected most international observers for the elections, which could lead to widespread fraud benefiting the socialists. Fraudulent results could also spark more violence in the streets.
Luis Diaz, an opposition candidate, was gunned down last week in central Venezuela, and other opposition leaders such as Leopoldo Lopez have been jailed or disqualified from ballots. Dozens of civilians were killed last year during anti-government protests.
"The prospects are virtually none that the Maduro government will cede any real power to the opposition should they take control of the National Assembly," said Jose Cardenas, a former senior official in the George W. Bush administration and a Latin America expert.
"You’re going to continue to see a very polarized country, spiraling further into crisis," he added.
A State Department spokesperson said "the U.S. government supports free and transparent elections so the will of the Venezuelan people is reflected in the final results."
"We call on the Government of Venezuela to protect all political candidates and we call on the National Electoral Council to ensure that this campaign is conducted in a manner to encourage full participation by the people of Venezuela," the spokesperson added.
Due to the proportional representation system in Venezuela’s National Assembly, rural areas are overrepresented, Cardenas said, just like in the U.S. Senate. That benefits the socialists who dominate rural, less populated parts of the country.
Thus, opposition candidates could win the popular vote by prevailing in urban areas but still fail to control a majority of seats in the assembly, he said.
"It doesn’t translate into any real power," he said.
Additionally, Maduro could use his control of the government’s other branches to counteract opposition victories in the legislature. The outgoing assembly could grant him powers to rule by decree, and the judiciary could also issue rulings to weaken the legislature’s authority.
Maduro said recently that he will accept the election results but also "will not hand over the revolution.
The continued survival of the Maduro regime has important implications for U.S. security and interests. Two relatives of Maduro were recently arrested and accused of seeking to import 800 kilograms of cocaine into the United States, part of a narcotics network that has led to thousands of deaths and violence in America. Several top Venezuelan officials have also been accused of participating in the cocaine trade.
Cocaine from Venezuela has also turned up in Russia, which has quietly expanded its presence in Latin America in recent years. Russian narcotics traffickers tied to the Kremlin have established a foothold in the region, while Russia has sold more than $13 billion in arms to Venezuela.
U.S. officials have raised concerns that Venezuela could increase its military cooperation with U.S. adversaries such as Russia and Iran and grant them more access to bases and resources that are close to U.S. shores.
Cardenas called on the Obama administration to be more vocal and active about rights abuses in Venezuela and the creeping influence of foreign powers, including by imposing sanctions on senior officials in the Maduro regime. President Obama did implement some sanctions earlier this year—months after anti-Maduro protesters were killed—but critics say he did not go far enough.
"If they are subject to U.S. sanctions, that’s going to cause a lot of stress in the system and tension among government officials," Cardenas said.
The recent presidential election in Argentina could be the start of a welcome trend for U.S.-Latin American relations, though one that could take time to develop, he said. The victor, Mauricio Macri, has pledged to adopt more market-oriented policies and move closer to the United States, and away from Venezuela and Iran.
Macri’s win is "the first of a tack back to the center right following this wave of [leftist] populism that we’ve had over the last decade or more," in Latin America, he said.