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ANALYSIS: Republican Disarray Is Great News for Donald Trump

Chaos in House All But Assures a Trump Presidency

Trump (AP)
• October 9, 2015 12:21 pm

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Kevin McCarthy's surprise decision to withdraw from the race for House Speaker has thrown the Republican conference into disarray. The press coverage has been hysterical, warning that the Republican Party "is on the verge of ceasing to function" and sinking "deeper into chaos."

Democrats seems to think the dysfunction will help them, but they're almost definitely wrong. A Free Beacon historical analysis has found that the the GOP's intraparty chaos means that a Donald Trump presidency is all but assured.

According to data, the last time there was this level of pandemonium in the House GOP ranks was 1998-1999, when Republicans went through three different speakers in a matter of months. Newt Gingrich was driven to announce his resignation after a poor GOP showing in the November 1998 midterms. His chosen successor, Bob Livingston, was forced to withdraw weeks later amid allegations of sexual impropriety. Ultimately, Dennis Hastert was sworn in as speaker in January 1999.

The GOP's disarray did not end up hurting the party at the polls, our analysis shows. In fact, the 2000 president election was won by George W. Bush, the Republican candidate who was leading in the polls at the time chaos erupted in the House. A Gallup survey taken in January 1999 showed Bush with a comfortable lead over his closest GOP rival, Elizabeth Dole, 42 percent to 22 percent.

Analytical extrapolation concludes conclusively that the current Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, will almost certainly win the White House in 2016, and America will be great again.