The U.S. Navy under the Trump administration will have difficulty expanding its fleet of warships to defend U.S. interests due to current defense budget caps.
The Navy's fiscal 2017 shipbuilding plan, sent to Congress last July, would expand the Navy's fleet to 308 battle force ships from the current level of 272 to meet commitments abroad and maintain an edge over potential adversaries.
The plan would cost, on average, $21 billion annually in 2016 dollars over 30 years, according to a summary analysis released on Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Implementing the plan will be difficult for the Trump administration given defense spending caps set by the 2011 Budget Control Act, which will remain in effect through 2021 under current law.
The 2017 shipbuilding plan, which covers the period between 2017 and 2046, was based on the service's 2014 force structure assessment calling for a fleet of 308 battle force ships, a category that includes aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, and amphibious ships, as well as logistics and some support ships. The Navy released a new force structure assessment in December stating that the service needs a fleet of 355 ships to defend U.S. interests and counter threats from China and Russia.
Under the 2017 shipbuilding plan, the Navy would purchase 254 ships over a 30-year period, which CBO assessed would fall short of meeting goals for some ships in the 2014 force structure assessment and most vessels in the 2016 assessment.
The annual costs to build and maintain a fleet of 308 ships would also cost 30 percent more than the amount of funding the Navy has received on average for shipbuilding over the past three decades. CBO estimated that, if funding continued at the 30-year average, the Navy would be able to build 74 fewer battle force ships than it plans.
Building a fleet of 350 ships—a number commonly cited by policymakers and experts—would cost even more, potentially $25 billion per year, or 60 percent more than the historical average, according to CBO.
President-elect Donald Trump unveiled his plan to rebuild the military in September. The plan called for increasing the Navy's fleet of surface ships and submarines to 350.
If Trump's Navy sticks to the plan to build a 308-ship fleet, the service will face financial hurdles in the first five years as a result of the Budget Control Act.
"If, under the BCA's caps, the Navy received the same portion of DoD's budget and devoted the same percentage of its budget to ship construction over the 2017-2021 period that it has over the past 15 years, the annual shipbuilding budget would fall 20 percent short of CBO's estimate of the amount required to execute the Navy's 2017 plan over that period," CBO wrote in the new assessment.
"If all shipbuilding programs were cut proportionately, a reduction of that magnitude would require the Navy to purchase 9 fewer ships than the 38 it plans to purchase over that period," CBO wrote.
"Consequently, under current law, policymakers face a choice between implementing the Navy's 2017 shipbuilding plan and cutting costs elsewhere in the Navy's budget (or in DoD's budget more broadly), scaling back the 2017 plan, or taking some combination of those actions," CBO concluded.
Leaders across the military have raised concerns about the negative effects that budget restrictions have had on force readiness and modernization efforts.
Trump, who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, has pledged to boost defense spending and end sequestration, which went into effect in 2013 and has further eroded the military budget.
The Navy has focused on rebuilding its fleet of warships as China and Russia invest in their own military capabilities. Last November, China declared its first aircraft carrier combat-ready. This week week it conducted drills involving the carrier and fighter jets in the South China Sea.
"The global security environment changed significantly [since 2014], with our potential adversaries developing capabilities that undermine our traditional military strengths and erode our technological advantage," a summary of the Navy's 2016 force structure assessment stated in December, calling for a 355-ship fleet.
"Within this new security environment, defense planning guidance directed that the capacity and capability of the Joint Force must be sufficient to defeat one adversary while denying the objectives of a second adversary."