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Poll: Deadlocked Trump and Clinton Would Be Bad Presidents

June 29, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are virtually tied in the 2016 presidential race and a majority of Americans believe that both would be bad presidents, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters released Wednesday.

The poll shows Clinton leading Trump by a narrow margin of 42 percent to 40 percent, which is a drop from Clinton’s four-point lead of 45 percent to 41 percent in the Quinnipiac poll from the end of May.

Both candidates are strongly disliked, with each being viewed negatively by 57 percent of registered voters. 34 percent of Americans view Trump favorably, according to the poll, while Clinton’s favorability rating is slightly better at 37 percent.

Beyond likability, a majority of voters think both presumptive nominees will make bad presidents. Fifty-three percent said Clinton would not be a good commander in chief, compared with 43 percent who said she would. As for Trump, 58 percent responded that he will be a bad president while 35 percent believe he will be a good one. These numbers largely followed partisan lines, with 77 percent of Republican respondents saying Trump would make a good president and 17 percent disagreeing. For Clinton, 87 percent of Democrats said she would do a good job and 9 percent answered the other way.

A majority of Americans are not enthusiastic about voting for either candidate. Asked to describe their feelings about voting for Trump, 48 percent said they would "never" vote for him, 10 percent said they would "probably not," 18 percent said they probably would vote for the presumptive Republican nominee, and 23 percent said they "definitely" would vote for him.

Clinton’s numbers are similar for the same question. 45 percent said they would "never" vote for Clinton, 10 said "probably not," 19 percent responded they probably would, and 25 percent of voters said they will "definitely" vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A slightly greater number of independents, 49 percent, said they would "never" vote for Clinton compared to Trump. Meanwhile, 53 percent of men said they would never vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A strong majority of Americans, 61 percent, said the presidential race has increased hatred and prejudice in the country, while 34 percent said it has had no impact. Only one percent of respondents said the campaign has decreased these sentiments.

Of those who said the race has ratcheted up hatred and prejudice, 67 percent blamed the Trump campaign for the uptick, while 16 percent called Clinton responsible. Among Republican voters, 42 percent pointed the finger at Clinton, 25 percent at Trump, 17 percent blamed both, and 13 percent cited something else.

The poll found that Trump led among men 47 percent to 34 percent, while Clinton led among women, 50 percent to 33 percent. Trump maintains a stronger advantage with white men specifically at 56 percent to 25 percent, and Clinton holds a narrow lead with white women at 42 percent to 39 percent.

Clinton maintains a comfortable lead among minority voters, with 91 percent support from black voters and 50 percent support from Hispanics, compared to Trump’s 33 percent.

Clinton leads 47 percent to 37 percent among those with a college degree, while Trump has a 43 percent to 37 percent advantage with those who do not have one. The presumptive Democratic nominee is ahead 48 percent to 23 percent among registered voters between the ages of 18 to 34 and has a 10-point advantage (47 percent to 37 percent) among those aged 35 to 49. Trump leads 45 percent to 39 percent among voters between the ages of 50 and 64 and has a 51 percent to 35 percent advantage for those older than 65.

With Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the race, Clinton wins 39 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson getting eight percent and Stein getting four percent.

Clinton’s overall two-point edge in the latest Quinnipiac poll is less than her lead in two other recent national polls. The former secretary of state has a 5-point lead of 46 percent to 41 percent in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and a 12 point lead of 51 percent to 39 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Democratic voters constituted 31 percent of respondents in the latest Quinnipiac poll, while Republicans made up 28 percent. The poll, which surveyed 1,610 registered voters nationwide, was conducted over the phone from June 21 until Monday.