JERUSALEM—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week to discuss the implications for Israel of Russia’s growing military involvement in Syria.
Russia has substantially stepped up the flow of armaments to the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in recent weeks and has begun to build up what appears to be its own forward military base on the Syrian coast. These moves reflect the erosion of Assad's strength versus the rebels.
A statement from Netanyahu’s office said the prime minister "will present the threats against Israel as a result of the increased flow of advanced weapons into the Syrian arena and the transfer of lethal weaponry to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups."
The Pentagon has reported the apparent build-up of a Russian base at an airfield near the port of Latakia, a stronghold of Assad supporters. In addition to the presence of some 200 Russian naval infantry at the field, a portable air traffic control station has been sighted as well as temporary housing units, and components of an air defense system. An average of two Russian military cargo planes have been landing each day at the airfield. A diplomatic source told Reuters that the Russians were working to improve the runway.
The Israeli news site Ynet reported earlier this month that Russia is planning to deploy fighters and helicopter gunships to a Syrian base in order to undertake attacks against Islamic State (IS) forces in Syria. Citing diplomatic sources, the news site said that Moscow fears the growing influence of IS on radical Islamists in former republics of the Soviet Union. Western analysts suspect Putin’s primary interest is in buttressing the Damascus regime, which has provided Moscow with its principal foothold in the Middle East.
A Pentagon official said that Russia has not yet sent combat aircraft or helicopter gunships to Syria.
Russia’s build-up in Syria is being coordinated with Iran, which is Assad’s principal backer. Several hundred Iranian fighters were reported to have entered into combat recently against rebel forces in Syria. Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who visited Moscow last month, is reported to have visited again last week in order to coordinate positions. There is no indication as yet that Moscow plans to introduce combat troops into the Syrian arena, but analysts don’t rule out the possibility.
For Israel, the main concern is that the Russian presence may interfere with Israeli air force operations over Syria, according to Ehud Yaari, an analyst on Israel’s Channel Two. Israel has several times in recent years struck at convoys inside Syria bearing advanced weaponry sent by Iran to its Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon. Yaari said such strikes have occurred almost monthly, more frequently than publicized.
Israel and Russia have good relations, and neither would want to see its air force tangle with the other’s. Israel’s sorties have been directed exclusively against weaponry destined for Hezbollah, not against the Assad regime. Nevertheless, mistakes can occur and it would be important for Israel and Russia to establish ground rules that would prevent that from happening. The United States, which is active in Syrian air space daily in its air campaign against IS, would likewise have to have some kind of working relationship with the Russians if they begin operations over Syria.
In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, more than a dozen Russians are believed to have been killed when a bomb dropped during an Israeli air attack on Syrian military headquarters in Damascus fell short and hit a Soviet cultural center. Lives were also lost when a Russian freighter was sunk in a Syrian harbor during an Israeli attack. There was no direct Israeli-Russian clash.