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Ellison's Must Read of the Day

Ellison Barber
January 31, 2014

My must read of the day is "Obamacare deadbeats: Some don't pay up," on CNN Money:

Around one in five people who picked health insurance policies on the state and federal exchanges last year haven't paid their first month's premiums, according to insurers polled by CNNMoney. These folks will likely see their policy selection canceled and they'll be left uninsured.

Some 2.1 million people signed up for a plan in time for their coverage to start Jan. 1, according to the Obama administration. But with the payment deadlines stretching until Jan. 31 at the latest, anywhere between 12 percent and 30 percent of those folks still haven't paid up, insurers say.

Since the administration decided to count as "enrolled" anyone who put a plan in his online shopping cart, we don't know who's truly bought a plan and paid the premiums. If we define enrollment as occurring before a payment is sent, of course people are going to be confused. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that the "one in five" mentioned in this article completed their enrollment and then were shocked when they realized what it cost.

This is one of many reasons that the enrollment numbers provided by the administration have only been helpful on a parochial level. What we have is better than nothing, but these numbers are far from able to provide us with a clear picture of enrollments.

From the criteria for enrollments to the demographic breakdown, enough information is provided to appease the press, but it isn't enough to understand what's happening with the program.

The federal demographic breakdown is the worst information we have. After months of not releasing it, HHS provided that data earlier this month.

Roughly 2.2 million "selected marketplace plans" from October to December, and 24 percent of those were between the ages of 18 and 34. That percentage is too low by the administration's own estimates, which said 18 to 34 year olds would need to be 40 percent of enrollments for Obamacare to succeed.

In order to know whether there are sufficient young, healthy people enrolled in order to offset the cost and prevent a death spiral, we need the demographic breakdown on a state-by-state basis.

While the federal government runs some state exchanges, if you are purchasing insurance in the federal marketplace the insurance you buy is unique to your state.

The information we have on enrollments is far from complete.