A chorus of lawmakers and foreign policy experts Thursday implored the Obama administration to promptly declare its plans for a U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 or risk the destabilization of the country after a protracted 12-year war costing billions and resulting in the deaths of thousands of American troops.
Next year marks a critical juncture for Afghanistan as the United States withdraws the majority of its combat troops and the country holds April elections to replace President Hamid Karzai.
Both the U.S. and Afghan governments are also negotiating with the Taliban to achieve a political settlement to the conflict, but those talks have had an inauspicious start as the Taliban recently closed its office in Qatar due to complaints about its identification as the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" and the hoisting of a white flag used during its previous rule.
Experts noted that the final withdrawal of troops next year maintained the prospect of a military victory for the Taliban and enabled them to use the talks to gain legitimacy rather than negotiate for peace.
Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said a more definitive plan for U.S. support after the full transfer of combat operations to Afghan security forces would calm fears about the electoral process among citizens and candidates.
Corker said he spoke with presidential candidates during a trip to Afghanistan last week who raised concerns about the country’s preparations for secure and fair elections. He called the Obama administration’s lack of clarity on the issue "embarrassing."
"The administration has to quit looking at its navel and make a decision about what the force structure will be in Afghanistan," he said.
However, James Dobbins, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department, told members of the committee that the complete combat troop withdrawal is still 18 months away and that government officials need to assess the needs of the Afghan forces after the spring fighting season.
"We need more certainty," he said, adding that reports that the United States was considering a "zero option" or no military presence post-2014 were "unhelpful."
Other experts echoed the need for a more concrete plan.
"The U.S. and its allies need to be actively countering the narrative of abandonment that is frequently heard in Afghanistan," said Stephen Hadley, senior adviser on international affairs for the U.S. Institute of Peace and former co-chairman of a bipartisan working group on Afghanistan convened by the institute and the liberal Center for American Progress, in testimony.
"The best way to do this would be for the U.S. government to make clear as soon as possible its intention to have a robust troop presence in Afghanistan well beyond 2014 and to announce the size of that troop deployment now even before negotiations have concluded on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that will provide the legal framework for this troop presence."
Sen. Bob Menendez (D., N.J.), chairman of the committee, peppered Dobbins with questions about delays in electoral preparations, such as the appointment of a chairman for the Independent Elections Commission of Afghanistan to manage complaints about fraud and other abuses.
"There are very clear benchmarks here that we are not meeting," he said.
Questions also remain about the capacity of Afghan forces to ensure their nation’s security without U.S. combat assistance amid revelations that the U.S. government will spend nearly $800 million on military aircraft that Afghans are not trained to fly.
Other reports indicate that Afghan forces might never fully gain and retain control of parts of the country’s mountainous terrain that are occupied by the Taliban.
Peter Lavoy, acting assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs for the Defense Department, admitted that there are "gaps" in Afghan security but said U.S. forces are working to ensure a smooth transition post-2014 and adequately train pilots and other troops.
"It’s not clear to us how long it will take for them to develop that capability," Lavoy said.
"Training pilots is a laborious process."