Trouble for Warren in New Hampshire: Poll Shows Her in Fourth Place in State Neighboring Massachusetts

Sen. Elizabeth Warren / Getty Images

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) is counting on a big result in the New Hampshire Democratic primary next year, given its proximity to her state and the shot of momentum a strong finish could give to her 2020 candidacy.

But she's not making any breakthrough in polls of the Granite State, where she is consistently languishing well behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.). A University of Massachusetts poll, conducted online by YouGov and released Wednesday, showed more of the same, with Warren (9 percent) in fourth place, well behind Biden (28), Sanders (20) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D., Calif.) (14).

Another alarming finding for Warren: She topped the list of Democratic candidates among likely Democratic primary voters that they wouldn't support in a general election, at 26 percent.

Warren finished third with 11 percent support in a Change Research poll in January in New Hampshire, and she was fourth with 9 percent support in an Optimus survey released earlier this month.

Warren likely wouldn't survive a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire if she does similarly poorly in the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire Democrats have rewarded candidates from nearby states in recent open primary years: Sanders of neighboring Vermont in 2016, then-New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in 2008, and then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

Biden is not yet a declared candidate, although he's been mulling over a run for months. Sanders announced his candidacy on Tuesday, while Harris jumped into the race last month.

Warren has made multiple campaign stops in New Hampshire since she formed her exploratory committee in December. When she officially announced her candidacy on Feb. 9, she visited Dover, New Hampshire later that day for an organizing event.

Warren has already laid out several progressive policy proposals, including an "ultra-millionaire" tax that would place a two-percent tax on those with assets of $50 million or more and a three-percent one on those with $1 billion or more. This week, she rolled out her plan for universal child care, which she says would be funded by the tax.