Fueled by Swing With Independents, Plurality Supports Kavanaugh's Confirmation to Supreme Court

Brett Kavanaugh
Brett Kavanaugh / Getty Images
August 16, 2018

A new Quinnipiac poll shows increased public support for Judge Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court, fueled by an eight-point swing in his favor by independents.

Forty-four percent of respondents believe the U.S. Senate should confirm Kavanaugh, with 39 percent saying they shouldn't and 17 percent saying they didn't know or having no response. Independents favor Kavanaugh in the poll by a 44-to-36 percent margin.

Last month, a Quinnipiac survey showed 40 percent favored Kavanaugh being confirmed, with 41 percent against him. Only 36 percent of independents in that survey favored confirming Kavanaugh, while 42 percent of independents opposed.

Republican support for Kavanaugh remains strong and was largely unchanged from last month; 81 percent support him in the new poll, while 80 percent supported in July. Democrats went down in their support, with only eight percent favoring Kavanaugh's confirmation while 11 percent favored it in July.

The gender gap slightly narrowed, with 38 percent of women favoring Kavanaugh's confirmation (41 percent are against). Last month, 32 percent of women favored it, with 46 percent saying they were against. Men favor Kavanaugh being confirmed 49-to-36 percent; last month, it was 50-to-35.

Senate Democrats appear unlikely to stop Kavanaugh's confirmation, given they need to flip a minimum of two Republicans and none have expressed any indication they will vote him down. Kavanaugh has also met with Sens. Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), and Joe Donnelly (D, Ind.), the three Democrats who voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court in 2017.