JERUSALEM—Avigdor Liberman was one of the only Israeli leaders who saw Oct. 7 coming. Now, the hawkish former defense minister turned opposition lawmaker insists Israel is fighting the wrong war, wasting its time pounding Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah rather than confronting Iran itself.
In the post-Oct. 7 world, Liberman has credibility. Shortly after the brutal massacre that shook Israelis from a decade of delusion about Hamas's intentions and capabilities, Israeli media published excerpts from a secret document that Liberman produced as defense minister in 2016.
He warned in the memo to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas planned to send "a significant number of well-trained forces" to capture communities near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip and "take hostages." Liberman urged a preemptive strike on Hamas by "mid-2017" in order to prevent an "unplanned deterioration" with consequences "even worse than the results of the Yom Kippur war."
During an interview at his Knesset office earlier this month, Liberman told the Washington Free Beacon that he sees Israel's leaders once again "trying to avoid reality" and contain a genocidal enemy. Reversing his previous advocacy for a decisive showdown with Hamas, he called for Israel to end the war in Gaza, cut all ties with the strip, and shift focus "directly to Iran."
"Our leadership, both political and military, is still captive to the same concept [as before Oct. 7]. They didn't change anything," Liberman said. "They speak about victory, victory, victory. It's nonsense. We have wasted nine months fighting Hamas, Hezbollah, etc., instead of striking Iran."
Liberman warned that the Islamic Republic will be a "real nuclear power" within "a year and a half, two years maximum," at which point he predicted the mullahs will launch a conventional attack on the Jewish state, unleashing tens of thousands of missiles and a network of terrorist proxies.
"They are telling us what their intentions are," he said, citing public statements by Iran's leaders vowing to destroy Israel. "They will attack us from Iran itself, from Hamas in Gaza, from Hezbollah in Lebanon, from the militias in Syria and Iraq, and from the Houthis in Yemen. They say their fighters will meet in Tel Aviv in the end."
Israeli officials have in recent months leaked that Iran is taking preliminary steps to convert a stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium into an atomic bomb. The Islamic Republic—which directly attacked Israel for the first time on April 13, drawing a mostly symbolic response from the Jewish state—has denied seeking the bomb even as it has threatened to do so if pressured.
For many Israelis, Oct. 7 validated Liberman's decades of advocacy for a more aggressive approach to Hamas and the rest of the Iranian axis—even as the attack discredited Netanyahu's right-wing government and the security establishment.
Politically, Liberman is on the rise.
"Avigdor Liberman has been saying for years, 'Don't trust our neighbors. Don't do this. Don't do that.' Unfortunately, reality proved him right," said a former minister for Israel's left-wing Labor Party who befriended Liberman when they served together in the Knesset. She requested anonymity to speak frankly about controversial political matters.
"These days, after what happened to us and the atrocities [of Oct. 7], even people from the left are looking for a leader like him who speaks very directly without any bullshit," the former minister said. "He says: 'Look, if you want to survive here, this is the formula. You have to know that you don't give them one inch—not anymore.'"
Over more than 40 years in national politics, Liberman has left five different Israeli governments over their concessions to the Palestinians. Most recently, in 2018, he resigned as defense minister after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas that allowed Qatar to funnel billions of dollars into Gaza, much of it in suitcases full of cash.
At the time, Liberman called the deal a "capitulation to terror," saying, "What we are doing right now is buying quiet for a heavy price with no long-term plan to reduce violence toward us."
Asked by the Free Beacon how he—a Moldovan immigrant to Israel who served one year of mandatory military service—saw the threat from Hamas more clearly than the IDF's top generals, Liberman explained that he simply believed his eyes.
"They were all the same people, in the same atmosphere, in the same place. This made them very dogmatic. They could not draw the right conclusions, you know, do one plus one," he said. "I came without prejudice, and the evidence was very clear."
Since his resignation, Liberman has refused to join any governing coalition headed by Netanyahu, his former political mentor and longtime ally, earning the ire of many on the right and leaving his Yisrael Beiteinu party among the smallest in the Knesset.
"Nobody understood what Liberman was up to. People laughed at him," Nimrod Nir, a political psychologist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and CEO of Agam Labs, a political consultancy, told the Free Beacon. "But after Oct. 7, he became the prophet. Now, he's seen as a potential prime minister."
According to recent polling conducted by Agam Labs, Yisrael Beiteinu would more than double its performance in a rerun of the latest national election, in 2022. The party would win 14 of the Knesset's 120 seats, up from 6 today—behind only Netanyahu's Likud, with 21 seats, and former war cabinet minister Benny Gantz's National Unity, with 22 seats, and tied with opposition leader Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid. The polling also found that Jewish Israelis view Liberman as the most effective member of the political opposition and prefer him as prime minister over Netanyahu, 51 percent versus 49 percent.
Most of Yisrael Beiteinu's new supporters voted in 2022 for centrist or left-of-center political parties, per the polling, part of a major rightward realignment of Israeli politics since Oct. 7 documented by Agam Labs.
At the same time, the Israeli public has also shifted toward Liberman's liberal views on religion and state. Ending ultra-Orthodox Jews' traditional exemption from military conscription—a cause Liberman has championed for decades—has become a national priority as Israel's multifront war has stretched the reserve forces thin, requiring tens of thousands of Israelis to report for second and third rounds of duty with no end in sight.
Daniel Chupini, 29, a network engineer from Petah Tikvah, spoke to the Free Beacon from reserve duty on Israel's Lebanon border, which has come under near-daily bombardment by Hezbollah. He said he plans to vote for Yisrael Beiteinu after having supported Yesh Atid and before that National Unity.
"I used to think Liberman might be too extreme. I thought maybe he was anti-religious and didn't give enough hope for peace," Chupini said. "But today I understand there was a purpose to what he was saying back then."
"It's not about right and left anymore," he added. "It's about what's right and what's wrong."
The ultra-Orthodox draft issue along with reported progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks have threatened to bring down Netanyahu's government and force early elections. Polls have indicated that a mooted political alliance helmed by Liberman and former prime minister Naftali Bennett, a fellow Iran hawk, could win the most votes and lead an anti-Netanyahu governing coalition. Two sources close to Liberman, sharing their private impressions on condition of anonymity, told the Free Beacon that he is unlikely to sign on to any alliance that would not send him directly to the prime minister's residence.
Liberman declined to discuss his electoral plans other than say that he aims to "win the election and establish a Zionist coalition" that excludes the Orthodox Jewish parties. He accused Netanyahu of running a dangerously dysfunctional government—pointing to tensions between the prime minister and defense minister Yoav Gallant—and said a thorough house-cleaning is needed across the government and the security establishment.
"It's crucial because this current leadership proved even after Oct. 7, they're not able to handle these problems," Liberman said.
A senior government official, who asked not to be further identified, responded with a statement defending Netanyahu's record against Hamas and Iran and vowing to win the Gaza war.
"PM Netanyahu has led the battle against the Iranian nuclear threat since the mid 1990s. Since then, he has been fighting Iran on many fronts and no one should question his resolve," read the statement. "It's a shame that Avigdor Lieberman, who once served as Minister of Defense, is preoccupied in politics and undermining Israel's achievements during a time of war."