Fun times last night! Let's get right to it, shall we?
WINNER: MARCO RUBIO
Obviously, the biggest winner of the night wasn't a winner at all. Marco Rubio defied expectations and outkicked his coverage, stealing 23 percent of the vote and putting a scare into putative frontrunner Donald Trump, who almost slipped to third. I know some will sneer at the idea that third place is a victory—haters gonna hate hate hate, after all—but numbers don't lie: Rubio did better in the only poll that matters than he did in literally every other poll ahead of the actual caucus. Huge night for Rubio, who comes out of Iowa with the same number of delegates as Trump and only one fewer than Cruz.
LOSER: DONALD TRUMP
For a moment, it looked like Trump might slip all the way to third. That would've been a devastating blow for the man who had topped the polls throughout the race. As it is, though, last night was still pretty terrible. He heads into New Hampshire needing a big win—one that the polls seem to suggest is all but certain. But who knows if his voters will actually show up this time?
WINNER: TED CRUZ
For all the talk about Ted Cruz being an anti-establishment figure—and I have no doubt that the guys on K Street would prefer a crony capitalist like Trump to a committed small government conservative like Cruz—he is undoubtedly a figure that conservatism's intellectual establishment is more than happy to settle for if it means Trump is denied the nomination. Last night's win for Cruz was huge, a total vindication of the rumors everyone had heard regarding his ground game and his get out the vote efforts. Ted Cruz won more votes last night than any Republican in Iowa caucus history. If he becomes the consensus anti-Trump candidate after also-rans start dropping out following New Hampshire, he will be formidable the rest of the way.
LOSER: HILLARY CLINTON
I swear to God: I'd take a Bernie Sanders presidency if it means we get to see Hillary Clinton flame out spectacularly to another person she should be beating handily. She barely managed a virtual tie against a literal socialist. What an awful candidate.
WINNER: HILLARY CLINTON'S LUCK
Iowa is a ridiculous place:
In a handful of Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss.
It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.
As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three. ...
Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss.
Emphasis mine, because that's an insanely lucky streak. My math skills aren't legendary, but I'm pretty sure the odds of winning six coin flips in a row like that are one in 64.
LOSERS: ELIZABETH WARREN, JOE BIDEN
I kind of wish I could've watched the returns come in last night with Elizabeth Warren—who the left begged to run before settling on Sanders—and Joe Biden—who is approximately one billion times more likable than Hillary Clinton and an infinitely superior politician. Do you think they were just muttering "crap" over and over again as the results came in?
WINNER: THE BERNIE BROS
Bernie Bros carried their man to near-victory last night: The socialist nabbed 50 percent of men but only 42 percent of women, according to polls.
Apparently, Bernie Sanders supporters get really, really upset when you refer to them as "Bernie Bros." There have been a series of stories complaining about the behavior of Bernie Bros online (they are v mean to Clinton supporters, oh noes!) and a series of counter-stories pushing back on this narrative (Bernie Bros don't represent Bernie! They're not even all dudes! How can you call them bros?) It didn't really make much sense to me until Will Truman explained it:
@SonnyBunch Because they don't get called Bros. They call *others* bros. This is a disruption in the natural order of sneer.
— Will Truman (@trumwill) February 1, 2016
This is exactly right. The Bernie Bros are annoyed at being marginalized and dismissively labeled "Bros." They're members of the left, dangit! THEY are the ones who should be dismissively calling other people petty names!
It's actually kind of hilarious to watch the left do to another part of the left what it so often does to the right. The Bernie Bros are, more or less, Tea Partiers or GamerGaters at this point. At least, they're being subjected to the same exact playbook:
- Find an example of someone in a group Democrats don't like behaving badly;
- Use that person's behavior as proof that the whole movement is corrupt;
- Create media narrative highlighting the "problem" of the few miscreants;
- Marginalize supporters of the group by pointing to media coverage;
- Crush movement, move on to next target, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, the Bernie Bros had the last laugh last night, bringing Hillary Clinton and her supporters to their knees. Sanders should rout Hillary in New Hampshire. But can the Bernie Bros make inroads in South Carolina? It will be interesting to see.