SENATE: NORTH CAROLINA
Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan is losing ground, according to the latest poll from Public Policy Polling:
PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find Kay Hagan in the lead, although the race has tightened slightly compared to a month ago. Hagan is at 42 percent to 38 percent for Thom Tillis with Libertarian Sean Haugh continuing to hold on to 8 percent of the vote. Haugh's supporters say they would support Tillis 61/19 over Hagan if they had to choose between the two major party candidates—when you allocate them to their second choice Hagan leads by just one point at 43/42.
In the past two months, the firm has found Hagan’s lead over Tillis to be "growing." The latest poll marks a significant shift in those findings. Not to mention, PPP is a polling firm that leans left, and that arguably gives the drop more weight.
PPP also notes Tillis’ favorability is slightly up and it’s improved with GOP voters.
SENATE: MONTANA
Last weekend, Montana Democrats found a replacement for the newly retiring Sen. John Walsh: Amanda Curtis.
Curtis is a high school math teacher, who has served one term in the state legislature.
Her campaign is taking on a populist narrative that the Associated Press describes as "touting her relative inexperience and blue-collar roots as assets," to "[frame] her campaign as one that will champion the interests of the working class against those of the wealthy and of corporations."
That’s not particularly surprising—Curtis is known, and identified in a TedX talk, as a "working class activist." The narrative fits her past, but there are limits to it because it’s a narrative that primarily encompasses domestic issues.
In a recent profile, the Daily Beast writes:
Curtis told the Daily Beast that, if elected, her top priority would be campaign-finance reform. However, on other issues, she still was sketching out her positions. When asked about the situation in Iraq and the Obama administration’s response, she didn’t have an answer. "I’m still studying a lot of these issues. I’m planning to listen to all sides and make these decisions listening to regular Montanans," she said. She pointed out that "you have to appreciate please that I was painting my storm windows [this time last week]."
I was painting my windows last week, so I’m not sure what we should do in Iraq is a completely reasonable and responsible answer for anyone who is not applying for a job in which they would have decision making power in those kinds of foreign affairs. Senators do have that power, and this answer is not a great start for a Senate hopeful when Iraq, and foreign policy, is dominating the news.
Additionally, Curtis seems to face nearly impossible odds in terms of logistics.
Democrats were facing an uphill battle in Montana long before Walsh was accused of the plagiarism that resulted in his decision to drop out of the race. The Republican challenger, Rep. Steve Daines, was up by 18 points before the scandal broke, and his replacement doesn’t inspire much confidence that the tide will turn. There is little time before the election, and as the Daily Beast notes, Curtis must raise money and "build up an entire campaign organization from scratch."
It would be a difficult task for a well-known and experienced politician—Curtis is neither.
SENATE: LOUISANA
CNN reported on a charter flight Landrieu took to a fundraiser in Lake Charles, Louisiana. The flight cost $3,200 and was paid for with government funds.
Landrieu’s campaign said it was simply a billing error and they had already corrected it, but days later, Landrieu’s spokesmen told CNN she would also reimburse the Senate for a $5,700 charter flight she took from Shreveport, Louisiana, to a fundraiser in Dallas, Texas.
As if those flights weren’t enough to cause a problem, reporters found some more.
Politico reports:
Vulnerable Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is under renewed scrutiny for potentially violating campaign finance laws by tapping official Senate funds to cover the cost of fundraising trips. […]
On Aug. 23, 2012, Butler Aviation charged $6,787 for an in-state flight for Landrieu that included multiple stops. The flight was from New Orleans to Vidalia to Shreveport to Alexandria and back to New Orleans, according to official disbursement records Landrieu filed with the secretary of the Senate.
On Oct. 18, 2012, Butler Aviation charged $3,437 for a Landrieu flight from New Orleans to Opelousas to Patterson and back to New Orleans.
Landrieu said the charges uncovered by CNN "shouldn’t have happened," and her office is now conducting an internal review of every flight taken in the past 18 years.
The race has remained close, close enough that more analysts believe there could be a runoff in November.
Landrieu is undoubtedly vulnerable. She’s encountered problems when it comes to her ability to deliver on energy issues, and possible violations of campaign finance laws isn’t what we would call a campaign booster—but Landrieu is also a strong politician and there are many politicians who survive ethically questionable incidents.