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Ellison’s Election Tip Sheet

Ellison Barber election tip sheet
April 25, 2014

SENATE: COLORADO

Sen. Mark Udall released an ad attacking his opponent for "promoting harsh anti-abortion laws," and "champion[ing] an eight year crusade to outlaw birth control."

Jumping to the "war on women" tends to be the Democrats go to when they’re in need of a cheap shot. Udall released this ad on Monday; right as a PPP poll came out showing 47 percent of respondents would vote for Udall in 2014 and 45 percent said they would vote for Gardner.

On Wednesday, Politico reported that a U.S. Chamber of Commerce poll found "Rep. Cory Gardner up by 2 points among likely voters." Then on Thursday a Quinnipiac poll found the race was virtually tied, with Udall at 45 percent to Gardner’s 44 percent.

Friday morning, Jennifer Duffy, the senior editor for the Cook Political Report, announced that they were now changing the race rating to a "toss-up."

Instead of being an attack on Gardner’s position, which he has claimed are misinterpreted and have changed, the timing of Udall’s ad makes it reek of desperation as poll after poll shows he’s struggling. 

SENATE: LOUSIANA

Tom Steyer may be delighted that the administration has delayed the Keystone XL, but the delay arguably undermines the campaigns of red state Democrats who have advocated for a decision to be made by May 31, 2014.

The delay was not at all good news for vulnerable red state Democrats, like Sens. Landrieu, Begich, and Pryor who are from big energy producing states.

In April, eleven Democrats wrote the president strongly requesting a decision be made "no later than May 31, 2014."

The letter said: "We are writing to request that you use your executive authority to implement an explicit timeline for Secretary of State John Kerry to make a national interest determination on the Keystone XL pipeline permit application … We ask that you bring this entire process to an end no later than May 31, 2014, and that your final decision be the right one, finding that the Keystone XL pipeline is in the national interest."

Now it looks like the senators have no clout in the administration. That’s especially problematic for someone like Mary Landrieu’s who has begun campaigning on the premise that she stands up to the president, specifically when it comes to energy concerns.

Ben White explained it best, noting:

But now Landrieu, who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, has demonstrated a total inability to actually influence the administration on a key decision that would impact the economy in her state.

Landrieu on Friday blasted the administration's decision as "irresponsible, unnecessary and unacceptable." And some make the case that Keystone gives her an opportunity to create distance between herself and an unpopular president.

That may be true but is likely swamped by the fact that Landrieu's key selling point—I can deliver for Louisiana!—is now fundamentally undermined.

Louisiana is one of the top energy producing states, and it looks like Landrieu’s opinion on a contentious energy issue held no weight in the administration, and that is terrible optics for her campaign.

SENATE: GEORGIA 

Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate trying to take retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ seat, has released her second ad and she’s sounding pretty moderate.

She calls for three things in this ad: Banning members of Congress from becoming lobbyists, prohibiting them from receiving a paycheck if they fail to pass a budget, and stopping subsidies for members to pay for their healthcare.

That’s very appealing to Republicans—because they’ve already supported those things—"No Budget No Pay Act of 2013" was first passed by the Republicans in the House, and Republican lawmakers have said they do not want health care subsidies and filed a lawsuit to that effect.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution notes:

Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn is up with her second ad this morning, an homage to her "five ways to fix Washington" message that has fast become a key part of her stump speech.

It’s part of Nunn’s strategy of tacking toward the center even as the crowded field competing for the GOP nomination rush to the right. Notably, like Nunn’s first ad, the new 30-second spot doesn’t once mention that she’s a Democrat.

Nunn is trying to portray herself as an independent and a moderate candidate.

Republicans will likely disagree with that and point to her past comments about Occupy Wall Street as evidence that she is "far left," but she is a formidable candidate.

Nunn has an advantage because she isn’t an incumbent. Unlike the other Democrats she doesn’t have to worry about previously voting in favor of the Affordable Care Act or making the promise that "if you like your doctor, you can keep it." She can be the "outsider" and that’s always helpful in a campaign.

Not to mention the boost she gets from her father, who served as a senator for over two decades. Sam Nunn is still very well liked in Georgia; in 2013, his approval rating in the state was 56 percent.

This race is probably going to be pretty close, and it’s one worth watching.