For most of 2024, Americans had the unusual experience of living through a two-incumbent election. The year began with the first presidential repeat since 1956. It was the first time the major parties were set to nominate a current and past president since 1892. The presence of two incumbents introduced all sorts of peculiarities into the race. Both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump were well known. Both men were unpopular. And both had records that could be easily contrasted.
Unfortunately for Trump, Biden quit 106 days before the actual election. The rematch was over. The Democrats coalesced around a new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. This is now a contest between a former president and an incumbent vice president. The race is open. And open races favor the out party—in this case, Republicans.
But Trump is special. He is universally known. He is viscerally disliked by half the country and fiercely supported by the other half. He lived in the White House less than four years ago. He has been a force in presidential politics since 2011 and has sat at the center of global politics since 2015. He's the only man to have won the Republican presidential nomination three times in a row. From a certain angle, then, Trump is now the "incumbent." Harris is a comparatively youthful and fresh alternative. She is running, despite her record and involvement in Biden's failed presidency, as a change candidate. Look at what she tells audiences: "We are not going back."
It's working. Harris catalyzed a virtuous cycle for her party: Large and enthusiastic crowds prompt favorable press, resulting in spiking donations and favorability and support, and contributing to large and enthusiastic crowds. She raised $310 million in July and another $36 million (at least) so far this month. She and her running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, are having a grand old time on the campaign trail. Megan Thee Stallion and Bon Iver perfom. Beyoncé's "Freedom" plays in the background. The KHive supplies Brat Summer IG captions, coconut memes, and rainbow glitter. Harris has moved to the front of the polls. Trump was 3 points ahead of Biden nationwide on July 21, according to the RealClearPolitics average. As I write, Harris is 1 point ahead of Trump.
Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted this "Harris Honeymoon" in a July 23 memo. "Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice," Fabrizio wrote, "there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrats' convention."
Well, the bump is here. And nothing has interrupted its growth: Not Trump's remarks to the National Association of Black Journalists, not the threat of war in the Middle East, not the voided plea agreement with 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, not the U.S.-Russia prisoner and hostage exchange, not the news of second gentleman Doug Emhoff's affair during his first marriage, not the recent patch of financial market instability.
Nor do the dominant media care that Harris hasn't sat for an interview or held a press conference since becoming the presumptive nominee. Her last major television appearance was held on debate night, June 27. Talking to Anderson Cooper, Harris did her best to spin Biden's terrible performance—just as she ignored or dismissed or excused Biden's manifest infirmities these past few years.
Politico reports that "Harris' top communications aides are deeply skeptical, as Biden's inner circle was, that doing big interviews with major TV networks or national newspapers offer much real upside when it comes to reaching swing voters." Is that why Team Biden was "deeply skeptical" of putting him in front of cameras? Or—to take just one example—did they decline the Super Bowl interview last February to hide his condition from the public?
The second option is more likely. And if that is the case, then what is the Harris campaign hiding? Not the effects of old age. The vice president turns 60 years old in October. What Harris is trying to avoid is substance. She doesn't want to offer specific answers, concrete policies, persuasive explanations in an open setting. If that were to happen, she might be unprepared. She might whip up a word salad. Her Progressivism might show. The press might be forced to cover something other than the "joy" and "vibes" she has brought to the trail.
Why would Harris want to do that? Republicans and conservatives (and I) will continue to complain that she's ducking the media. It won't matter. Harris and her media allies will engage in a conspiracy of silence until she has no choice.
Only Trump can force that decision sooner rather than later. Only Trump can tie Harris to the Biden record of inflation, unchecked immigration, and disorder here and abroad. Make her endorse or repudiate past policies such as abolishing private medical insurance, promoting the Green New Deal, banning fracking, decriminalizing border crossings, and exploring the possibility of racial reparations. Expose her appeasement of pro-Hamas forces within the Democratic Party. Remind voters of her radical plans to restructure the Supreme Court. Draw a picture of a world where Commander in Chief Harris is wildly out of her depth. Wrest the mantle of change from her grip.
Near the end of his polling memo last month, Fabrizio wrote, "Harris can't change who she is or what she's done." Maybe not. But she is sure going to try. And plenty of people are willing to help her pull off the switcheroo of the century. Donald Trump will need resources and single-mindedness and discipline and luck to make the Harris surge fade as rapidly as it began.