JERUSALEM—Hamas and Hezbollah have lost most of their support within their own constituencies, which now regard them as a greater threat to their societies than Israel, according to extensive monitoring of social networks in Gaza and Lebanon.
This startling conclusion was reported this week by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
"One of the most evident results of the Arab Spring has been the shift in focus by Arab civil societies," said the report. "Violent resistance against Israel by Hizbollah and Hamas has lost its legitimacy."
The two militant groups are seen as out of step with the broader society whose primary objective now is political and socio-economic reforms.
"Public demand for violent struggle against Israel no longer exists," writes the author of the report, Orit Perlov, who says that the shift carries "momentous consequences" for Israel.
Antagonism towards Hezbollah in Lebanon, even among its traditional Shiite followers, is reflected in the widespread opposition to the militant organization’s participation in Syria’s civil war on the side of President Bashar Assad.
Assad supporters say the greatest perceived danger at present is that the Jihadist forces leading the battle against the Syrian leader will become a permanent feature on Lebanon’s vulnerable border with that country. "When the Lebanese public speaks about the external enemy, it therefore does not refer to Israel," said the report.
The wave of uprisings in Arab countries has likewise brought a shift of focus within the Palestinian public from armed struggle against Israel to civil rights and a better standard of living.
"Internet discourse shows that for the first time since the establishment of Hamas a majority of the Gaza population wants to overthrow the Hamas regime," says the report. "This is the first time that public opinion regards Hamas’ policy as a greater threat than Israel to their well being."
The external enemy is now seen to be Egypt whose military has destroyed almost all the tunnels between Sinai and the Gaza Strip which served as Gaza’s economic lifeline and channel for arms. The collapse in Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood regime, the major political anchor for Hamas, has undermined the fervent belief that "Islam is the answer," says the report.
Hamas’ ideological link to the Muslim Brotherhood has made it anathema to those in power in Egypt. Egyptian state media and the social networks there term Gaza a terrorist entity.
"As with Lebanon," notes the report, "Israel has been relegated to fourth place in the Palestinian public discourse behind Egyptian policy towards Gaza, the deteriorating economic situation in Gaza, and the civilian protest against Hamas."