The hotly contested Arizona Senate race between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will come down to election day turnout, according to a new poll released late Sunday by OH Predictive Insights and ABC15.
The poll shows McSally with a narrow 49-48 lead, with 3 percent still undecided, and a 3 percent margin of error.
"Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends," said Mike Noble, chief pollster of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights (OHPI). "The race has tightened and it's fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out their voters on Election Day."
Both candidates are serving out the remainder of their term as members of the House of Representatives.
The OHPI two-day survey began on Nov. 2, and is notable because it came after Green Party candidate Angela Green dropped out of the race and encouraged her supporters to back Sinema.
OHPI has been the one polling outlet in the race which after McSally's victory in the Republican primary in late August, has consistently shown the former combat fighter pilot with a lead.
On Oct. 1, OH Predictive and ABC 15 showed McSally leading 47-41.
By Oct. 21-22, the same group showed McSally widening her lead to 52-45, the largest lead for McSally in any poll since the primary.
"The key comes down to Sinema's voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day," the OHPI poll release stated. "OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema's voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally's voters have done the same."
"A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement," the OHPI release concluded. "While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them."
The governor's race in Arizona is widely seen by all polls and analysts as a safe win for incumbent Republican Doug Ducey. Ducey is facing Democrat David Garcia, an education professor.
Garcia and Sinema have refused to endorse each other, leading many political watchers to wonder if the lack of unity will impact Democratic turnout.