AVONDALE, ARIZ.– Congresswoman Martha McSally's campaign for the U.S. Senate will use the remaining days left to focus on tax cuts and a jobs-producing economy, if the Wednesday tour of an auto-tech vocational school just outside of Phoenix is any indication.
"It's a high-stakes race because I am the firewall to make sure that the senate majority doesn't flip," McSally, who is running against Kyrsten Sinema, told a gaggle of reporters after finishing her tour of Universal Technical Institute in Avondale, a sprawling institute with over 1,400 full-time students learning the increasingly computer-driven skills in automotive engineering and repair.
"I'm the firewall to make sure that Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) is not in charge, and Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.) isn't running the judiciary committee, and Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) don't have gavels themselves."
Recent polling suggests the final tally will be close in Arizona, but Republicans are encouraged by numbers released by the secretary of state's office showing their turnout may be strong enough to dilute the much talked about "blue wave" of Democrat enthusiasm.
The tour wrapped up with McSally talking with 17 students of UTI, where she stayed on message, hitting the notes Republicans think is their obvious strength as the midterm election nears a close.
"I'm around town talking to businesses all the time, and they're really needing people like you," she told the students, many of whom also identified themselves as veterans.
"So [we're] very excited to have you graduate, get in to the work force. It's one of the challenges we have, a booming economy right? This economy's doing great, people have more money in their paychecks, but you guys are making an investment in your future, and employers are starting to compete for you. So that's actually a good thing, right? Because with more opportunity out there, there's actually more job openings now nationwide than there are people looking for work."
Along with her work as a member of the house, McSally proudly wears her 26 years in the Air Force on her sleeve, and encountered veterans at the auto-tech school at every turn, seemingly asking every one if they were using their GI Bill benefits to help pay for the education, and also always asking about their thoughts and reactions to the quality of care they receive through the Veterans Administration services.
"Seems like she was asking the right questions about how veterans are transitioning over to jobs like this, using our benefits, what we're expecting from these fields," said Eric Andrews, a student at UTI who told the Washington Free Beacon that he served in the Army for 22 years. Andrews chatted with McSally for about 5 to 10 minutes as she went from classroom to classroom, all of them doing hands-on learning.
One of the more recent polls in the race by the New York Times showed McSally with a narrow two-point lead, within the poll's margin of error.
Yet the early returns of ballots show a Republican advantage that could favor McSally.
Garrett Archer, a data analyst for the Arizona Secretary of State's office tweeted out the latest ballot returns midday on Wednesday.
The party split mean is of all return days is now +11.8 R. While I still believe we will remain in the +10/+11 GOP range, these types of updates will push the final split to the lower end of that spectrum.
— The AZ Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) October 24, 2018
"Early ballot update for 10/24: 657k now in. Parties: GOP 44.4%, DEM 32.7%, OTH 22.4% (+11.7 GOP)."
Mike Noble, chief pollster with OH Predictive Insights, a Republican firm that does polling and analysis for mainstream outlets such as the local ABC affiliate, said those numbers are in line what the GOP were hoping to see.
"Here in Arizona we are currently not seeing the effect of the blue wave as many have been speculating," Noble told the Free Beacon. "With roughly one-fourth of the expected total vote counted, it closely mirrors historical midterm turnout which gives Republicans a double-digit advantage. With Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Garcia far behind in the polls it has almost eliminated the possibility of the large Arizona Hispanic population making a noticeable impact."
Predicting turnout and turning that into a model for polling is difficult in tight races such as this. For example, the previously cited New York Times poll that showed McSally with a slim lead of two points also notes that if turnout mirrors the "types of people who voted in 2014" then the poll swings to McSally +6.
By the same token, if the Times poll were modeled on those "who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else" then it runs back to Sinema by 7.
The last turnout scenario, however, is the only one the Times poll presented that showed Sinema with a lead. All other turnout scenarios they modeled gave the edge to McSally.
"[Early ballots] are coming in strong for Republicans," McSally said, when asked about the return numbers released by the secretary of state. "We're not resting on that at all."
As Noble mentioned, voter enthusiasm for Democrats across all races on the ballot has been an issue that has dogged both Sinema and Garcia at various times, as the two candidates have refused to endorse each other, leading to an intra-party awkwardness that the media can't help but to report on.
According to the poll tracking at Real Clear Politics, the governor's race between Garcia and incumbent Republican Doug Ducey was close in the summer months. But since that time Ducey has pulled away, leading by as much as 17 or 18 points in recent polls.
Beyond jobs and the economy, McSally continued to press themes of VA reform, immigration, and rebuilding the military, but also talked about education issues, frequently asking the students she met how they were paying for their education.
"I think part of it is, we want to make good paying jobs that don't require a 4-year degree sexy again," she joked with the students.