Economists Say There is a 60% Chance of Recession Happening in Next 4 Years

Some experts say a mistake by the Federal Reserve could knock the economy off course

New York stock exchange economy
October 14, 2016

Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal predict there is a 60 percent chance of a recession happening in the next four years, the Journal reported.

Economists predict that in the next four years either the next president will face a recession or the economy will have the longest expansion in history.

"That is not an assessment that the next U.S. president will cause a downturn," the article said. "Rather, it is a recognition that throughout its history the American economy has never grown for more than a decade without a recession."

"Over the course of the next four years, something—whether exhaustion of the economy’s cyclical momentum, a policy mistake from the Federal Reserve or some outside shock—could knock the economy off course."

Economists predict that in the next year there is a 20 percent chance of a recession happening. Most citied the biggest risk to the economy a possible global slowdown.

"The U.S. economy has grown at a 2.1% annual pace since 2009," the article states. "That is the slowest growth of any expansion after World War II. Many economists were one optimistic that growth would accelerate, but now most forecast the economy will continue to grow at this pace in coming years."

Published under: Economy