TEL AVIV—As Hezbollah terrorists across Lebanon spontaneously combusted for a second straight day on Wednesday, war-weary Israelis were enjoying the show.
But like the rest of the world, they were also wondering what comes next. Were the thousands of explosions the start of a long-anticipated Israeli offensive against Hezbollah or just another tit-for-tat response to the Iran-backed terror group’s almost daily bombardment of the Jewish state’s northern region over the past 11 months?
"It’s really amazing, you know?" Amit Alfer, 57, a longtime resident of the north, told the Washington Free Beacon, referring to the blasts, some of which were apparently captured in video clips that have circulated widely online and spawned countless jokes and memes in Hebrew and Arabic. "We’re watching and waiting. The main thing is this has to be the beginning of a chain of actions. Otherwise, it’s nothing."
Alfer, a shiatsu therapist and father of three from Rosh Hanikra, is among some 60,000 Israelis who have been unable to return to their evacuated communities in the north since Iran and its proxies launched a multifront assault on the country on Oct. 7. Hezbollah has fired more than 8,000 rockets and missiles from Lebanon into Israel, killing dozens of people and wounding hundreds. In recent months, Israel has carried out a number of daring operations against Hezbollah and other Iran-linked targets but has resisted growing public pressure to decisively push the group back from the northern border.
This time, however, appears different.
The wave of explosions in Lebanon on Wednesday mainly targeted hand-held radios carried by Hezbollah terrorists. At least 14 people were killed and at least 450 were wounded, according to Lebanese officials. On Tuesday, at least 12 people were killed and at least 3,000 were wounded when Hezbollah pagers blew up, Lebanese officials said.
Hezbollah announced the deaths of 12 of its members, including some in separate Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon was among those hospitalized. The pager explosions also killed 19 members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps in Syria and wounded 15, Saudi Arabian news outlet Al Hadath reported.
The attacks on Hezbollah devices have been widely attributed to Israel, and Hezbollah and Iran have vowed to retaliate against the "Zionist regime." Israel has not directly commented on the attacks.
According to news reports, Israeli intelligence services booby-trapped the Hezbollah devices about five months ago, before they were imported to Lebanon, and planned to detonate them as a surprise first strike in an all-out war against Hezbollah. Israel reportedly pulled the trigger on the operation early for fear it was about to be exposed.
"These attacks were really kind of like science fiction. Nothing like that has ever happened before," said Alfer, a former Israel Defense Forces reconnaissance officer who fought in Israel’s 2006 Lebanon war. "So there is huge hope."
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, defense minister Yoav Gallant, IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi, and other officials issued statements on Wednesday indicating that the main battlefront was shifting from Gaza to Lebanon.
"The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north," Gallant told Israeli Air Force personnel at the Ramat David Airbase in remarks released by his office. "I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt."
Netanyahu said in a short video: "I’ve already said we will return residents of the north safely to their homes, and that is exactly what we will do."
Also on Wednesday, the IDF announced the deployment of the 98th Division’s 10,000-plus troops to the north. The paratroopers and commandos, who until recently were fighting in Gaza, will join the 36th Division under the Northern Command.
Israel’s security cabinet voted on Tuesday to expand the goals of the Gaza war to include the safe return of the evacuees to the north. Hezbollah has vowed to keep attacking Israel until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are explicitly dedicated to the eradication of the Jewish state.
"This means that Israel is going to war [in Lebanon]. That’s it," Amir Avivi, a IDF reserve brigadier general who has advised Netanyahu throughout the war, told the Free Beacon of the deployment. "We need to go in now, and we are seeing it happening, step by step."
Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a coalition of hawkish reserve soldiers, predicted that the attacks on Hezbollah devices will still end up being an opening blow in the next Lebanon war.
"We basically targeted all the leadership of Hezbollah. You have hundreds of commanders who died, hundreds who went blind, hundreds who were burned or lost a hand—and some of them left the beepers in their pants, so you can imagine what they’re without now," he said.
Avivi could not say for sure why Israel did not immediately follow up with major military action against Hezbollah. He suggested the government may want to accommodate the Biden administration’s efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict for as long as possible. But he said diplomacy has clearly run its course and the IDF is making final preparations to launch a ground campaign in Lebanon.
"Northern Command is almost at full readiness," he said. "The only thing that maybe is not completely ready is the ground forces that are being moved now from the south to the north."
According to Avivi, Israel must invade Lebanon before the start of winter, when cold and wet weather will make such an operation much more difficult and fog will interfere with airstrikes. He said Israel would also want to act ahead of U.S. Election Day, Nov. 5, "because I don't see the [Biden] administration going against Israel in the middle of elections."
Yaakov Amidror, an IDF reserve major general and former national security adviser to Netanyahu, said Israel would ideally like "another month or two" to wind down the Gaza war before turning its attention northward. He said a "use it or lose it" situation may very well have pushed forward the attacks on Hezbollah devices. But, like Avivi, he saw the attacks as a sign that Israel is newly prepared for escalation in the north, including to full-scale war if necessary.
"We are ready to take the risk of a war [in the north]. This is the difference strategically [from the recent past]," said Amidror, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a think tank. "Everything together is leading to the conclusion that there is no other way to return the evacuees to their homes. The decision is in the hands of Hezbollah."