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Unlike Iran, Cuba Takes 'Yes' for an Answer

AP
December 17, 2014

Negotiating with people who oppose everything that America ought to support has always been a fetish for the Obama administration. Candidate Obama made it quite clear in his 2008 campaign that, in his view, American foreign policy was plagued by unilateralism and triumphalism. Humility and dialogue were needed. The United States, in his view, had been morally compromised by the Bush administration, and an Obama administration would be able to achieve impressive foreign policy results simply by reaching out to foreign regimes we had foolishly considered to be adversaries, when all they were was misunderstood.

It has been a very disappointing six years for these hopes. Things have hardly ever been worse with (deep breath) Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, most of the Middle East—with a special mention for Syria—not to mention with regimes that ought to be friends, or at least friendly, like the governments of Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Israel, and a terrified eastern Europe.

Iran has been a particularly embarrassing case, inasmuch as the regime there seems to derive something approaching glee from their deft exploitation of the fact that the Obama administration so badly wants a nuclear deal, when the Iranian regime really just wants the bomb. Anyone who has ever negotiated to buy a car or a house knows that the secret to success is to want to close the deal less than the other guy. Considering Valerie Jarrett’s career in real estate, you would think this would be better understood at the White House.

So thank God for Cuba! This morning, the White House announced prisoner swaps for Alan Gross and an unnamed intelligence agent, released by the Cubans in return for three of their spies convicted in the U.S. in 2001. There is nothing inherently wrong with this—prisoner swaps were a regular feature of American relations with communist regimes during the Cold War. It is great that Gross and the unnamed second prisoner are coming home.

If anything, it’s nice the White House went three-for-two this time, as opposed to the absurdly unbalanced swap for Bowe Bergdahl, where five senior Taliban officials were swapped for one young American soldier, himself a likely deserter. With this administration, only getting cheated a little bit is a major improvement!

But, as is all over the news right now, the swap is not the end of it. In November, Tony Blinken—the new number two at the State Department—refused to rule out unilateral action by the administration to relax relations with Cuba, so long as the Cubans released Gross and took "meaningful steps to move forward" in the improvement of their appalling democratic and human rights record.

The Cubans have now released Gross, and no doubt made all sorts of pleasing noises about democracy and human rights during the negotiations. (Did Obama’s representatives make sure to check their privilege before the talks, understanding that they represent a country where a #Ferguson can happen?) In return, the Castros are apparently getting a lot. Leaks, background remarks from administration officials and plain old rumors are currently swirling around Washington, and we will have to wait for the president to speak at noon to know for sure what is being given to Havana. (Incidentally, it appears that Raul Castro is also speaking to his own people at noon. Twinsies!) For now, these are the most frequently mentioned possibilities, reported by CNN, the Associated Press, the New York Times, and others:

- The State Department will review, and likely eliminate, Cuba’s place on the list of state sponsors of terror.

- Steps will be taken toward a full normalization of diplomatic relations, including the opening of embassies.

- U.S. government agencies will maintain their rollback of efforts to promote civil society and better communications between Cubans and the wider world—the sort of effort Mr. Gross was imprisoned for participating in, and that USAID announced it would cease last month.

- Economic and trade restrictions will be relaxed, allowing for increased movement of people and cash between the United States and Cuba.

The administration can’t completely roll back the embargo. That would require congressional approval, an unlikely possibility. In this and so many other respects, today's action is of a piece with the Bergdahl swap and the ongoing Iran negotiations: an administration desperate for a deal, any deal, and willing to unilaterally give away far more than the United States gets in return, no matter how objectionable the regime on the other side of the table. One can only imagine the conversation in Iran about this, as the mullahs speculate just how far the administration will go to get to a deal with them.

Lost in the mix, as always with Obama, are the people who have to live in these authoritarian regimes. For Cubans, the only meaningful outcome of this morning’s news is that the oppressive rule of the Castros has been immeasurably strengthened.