Former president Donald Trump has a commanding 18-point lead over President Joe Biden in Iowa, according to a poll released Monday.
Trump is leading Biden 50 percent to 32 percent, according to a joint survey by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom Iowa, which polled more than 800 likely voters just weeks after the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records by a New York grand jury.
Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016.
Political analysts such as Frank Luntz interpreted the Monday poll as evidence that Biden's electoral bid is in dire straits. The poll "is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan," Luntz said.
The survey, with a 3.5 percent margin of error, also shows Biden trailing in favorability ratings, with 66 percent of surveyed Iowa voters finding Biden unfavorable compared with only 47 percent for Trump. The poll also shows Trump with a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters, with 40 percent of independents indicating support for Trump over Biden’s 29 percent.
The survey, conducted between June 9-14, comes just over two weeks after the former president was convicted by a Manhattan jury of falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election, a conviction Trump is poised to appeal. Trump, who is set to accept the Republican nomination for president at the party’s convention in Milwaukee next month, will face sentencing on July 11, just four days before the convention begins.
Trump says he will announce his running mate at the convention.