Russia is afforded a key role in preserving an arms embargo on Iran under a recently completed nuclear accord, despite the Kremlin’s interest in weapons sales to Tehran, according to a leading foreign policy analyst.
Frederick Kagan, director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, writes in the Wall Street Journal that the "the fate of the arms embargo" on Iran could be "placed in the hands of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin."
In the United Nations resolution that implements the deal, Russia and China would have to approve of new language that maintains restrictions on the transfer of ballistic missile technology and conventional arms to Iran for another eight and five years, respectively. Russia has said the embargo should be lifted immediately after the deal is implemented.
Kagan writes:
The survival of the international arms embargo against Iran, however, depends entirely on the U.N. Security Council resolution passed to implement this agreement. Nothing in the text of the agreement itself supports President Obama’s assertion that the embargo will last for another five years, although he may have that time frame in mind.
The current embargo was implemented by two resolutions: No. 1696 (2006) and No. 1929 (2010). The first bars the sale or transfer to Iran of any material or technology that might be useful to a ballistic-missile program, and the second does the same for "battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles, or missile systems."
A new resolution that simply terminates all of the previous sanctions would allow Russia and China to provide Iran with any military technology they choose. To preserve the embargo, the U.S. would need to add the appropriate language to the resolution that must be passed by the Security Council this summer. But that means getting agreement from the Russians, who have already said that the embargo should be ended immediately. The U.S. is not in a very strong position to engage the Russians on this point, since the Obama administration must get the resolution through the Security Council quickly or risk having the entire nuclear deal fall apart.
Russia has already announced its intent to sell S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran.
In an interview with the New York Times’ Thomas Friedman, President Obama said he was "surprised" at Russia’s contribution in reaching the Iran nuclear deal. "We would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us and the other P5-plus members in insisting on a strong deal," he said.