Joe Biden has led the national polls in the race for the 2020 Democratic nomination since last year. He's ahead in the first three contests, also, with leads ranging from 7 points (Iowa) to 13 points (New Hampshire) to 28 points (South Carolina). He's first in fivethirtyeight.com's endorsement primary. And though he didn't launch his campaign until the second quarter of 2019, at which point Bernie Sanders had raised the most money, his nonstop fundraising schedule, and great first-24-hours number, suggests that his second-quarter haul will be impressive. Going into tonight's Democratic debate, there was no reason to doubt Biden's status as the Democratic frontrunner.