A polarized Egypt will likely remain enveloped in violence because the Muslim Brotherhood lacks incentive to rejoin the political process, a regional expert said Monday.
Almost 300 people have died since Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi deposed President Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood leader, on July 3. Morsi’s authoritarian rule prompted secular Egyptians and others to back the military’s actions, but supporters of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood argue that the country’s first democratically elected leader should be reinstated.
The Muslim Brotherhood has refused to "swallow the reality" of Morsi’s exit, despite pleas from international diplomats and an offer by the military and interim government to free some jailed Brotherhood members, unfreeze the group’s assets, and grant it three ministerial posts, according to reports Monday.
The interim government has threatened to restore stability by forcibly evicting Brotherhood protesters from two Cairo sit-ins absent an agreement.
Jonathan Brown, associate professor of Islam and Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University, told an audience at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies that members of the Muslim Brotherhood fear more leaders will be arrested and held incommunicado—like Morsi—if they accept the legitimacy of the interim government.
Some Islamist intellectuals have proposed restoring Morsi in a transitional role before planned parliamentary elections in six months. Yet the military has resisted that option, making negotiations a nonstarter for the Muslim Brotherhood.
"The answer from Islamists here on out will be absolutely not," Brown said.
Ahmad Atif Ahmad, associate professor of religious studies at the University of California-Santa Barbara, disagreed. While some Muslim Brotherhood members will return to underground enclaves where they enjoy significant support among Egypt’s rural poor, others will seek election to local city councils and the parliament, he said.
"They will go back to something that’s a hybrid of [Morsi’s rule] and something more sustainable, he said.
An Egyptian citizen involved in the initial anti-Morsi protests who attended the event and asked to be called Abdallah told the Washington Free Beacon that the military’s decision to remove Morsi "was the best worst available solution for the country."
Still, the Muslim Brotherhood must be persuaded to cooperate with the interim government, he said.
"As much as it was the responsibility of the former government of the Brotherhood to include the opposition, it is also now the responsibility of the current government to include [the Brotherhood]," he said.
However, Brown said the military’s move to oust Morsi precluded the potential for an inclusive political environment. He urged the United States to push for a return to elections in Egypt as quickly as possible but stopped short of recommending the full withdrawal of its $1.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt. Some lawmakers and experts have advocated for the complete removal of U.S. aid, while others have favored a more cautious approach.
The Egyptian people desperately need a leader who will enact reforms to alleviate the country’s "miserable" economic conditions, Brown said.
"If someone’s not able to improve that or give them hope, they’ll suffer a similar fate [as Morsi]," he said.
Ahmad called on the United States to be patient with the Egyptian people and suggested that they will likely change their minds again about the military.
"We’re living in an important moment; it’s just a long moment," he said.