Ellison Barber: Is 2014 A Wave Election?

September 2, 2014

The Washington Free Beacon’s Ellison Barber pushed back against a POLITICO piece saying that the GOP was falling short in what many call a "wave election" year.

Barber pointed out that Democrats are outspending Republicans and that vulnerable Senate incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, and North Carolina staying in contention are a large reason why the expected Republican wave hasn't hit a fever pitch.

Meanwhile, in spite of heavy spending, the House remains firmly entrenched by the GOP.

ELLISON BARBER: This is one thing that is important to remember when you talk about the money aspect of this, while they are being out-raised in terms of congressional race, the NRCC raised more money than both the Senate campaigns, both Republicans and the Democrats.

If you look at what the DCCC has when they go out to fundraise, they have the best fundraiser on their side and president out-working and fundraising with them. That certainly helps them whether the House is in bad position come November -- I don't think they are.

The argument in this article, they will only pick up five or six seats... Right now, the Republicans have 233 seats in the House. That number is much more than they have had in the past.

There was a period from the late-1950s until the mid-1990s; they didn't have over 200 seats in the house.

In 2010, they picked up 53 seats, which gave them the largest majority since 1946. They are doing well. They have a large enough majority. There is no chance, barring some astronomical event, that the Democrats take control of the House.

If they get six seats instead of 11 seats, I don't think that is necessarily a really significant thing Republicans need to worry about, or we look back and say that is a big loss for them. They will still have a relatively large majority and comfortable large majority with a five- or six-seat gain.