With Hezbollah decimated, Iran significantly weakened, and Russia preoccupied with its war on Ukraine, Syrian opposition forces enjoyed ripe conditions for the surprise offensive they launched last week. Those forces are closer than ever to deposing dictator Bashar al-Assad, experts told the Washington Free Beacon, emphasizing the Iranian regime's ever-loosening grip on the Middle East.
The reignited Syrian war, which has dragged on for 13 years, will pose fresh challenges for the incoming Trump administration as it grapples with a Middle East already inflamed by a year of war between Israel and Iran-backed forces across the region. It is this very conflict, regional analysts and former U.S. national security officials say, that set the stage for Syria’s armed rebel forces to reclaim Aleppo, a key stronghold, and set their sites on the capital city, Damascus.
The key player in the coming battle for control of Syria is Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is backing anti-Assad forces and likely played a role in initiating their stunning offensive. These forces are primarily composed of Islamist militias controlled by Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham, a U.S.-designated terror group. On the other side is Assad, a brutal dictator who relies on support from Iran and Russia.
"For years, Iran dominated Syria through Assad, but Erdogan saw an opening with a weakened Iran and Hezbollah thanks to Israeli operations," said Simone Ledeen, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. "By supporting Islamist networks, Turkey is pushing to fill the vacuum left by Iran’s decline. This could redraw the map of the Middle East."
Still, Assad's decline would by no means lead to a friendly replacement for the United States. The Syrian conflict is "the Middle East equivalent of Alien vs Predator," Foundation for Defense of Democracies analyst Jonathan Schanzer said. "All of the players are bad actors with terrorist, anti-American, or anti-Israel agendas."
The dictator's struggles could, however, provide further opening for Israel to deliver a crushing blow on Tehran. Iran is reportedly dispatching scores of fighters to Syria to combat the rebel forces, and its air defenses are already decimated thanks to Israel's October counterstrike on the Islamic Republic.
Amid the chaos, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could see an opportunity to strike Tehran again, "including the nuclear program," according to former White House national security adviser John Bolton. That option remains "still on the table," he said.
"It’s still the regime in Tehran," Bolton said. "That’s what the threat is. Assad is a manifestation of that threat."
With Syrian opposition forces now closing in on Damascus following the siege of Aleppo and ensuing battles in other towns, analysts are just beginning to digest how Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah has fundamentally reshaped the region.
"The Israelis have helped change and weaken those players" who back Assad, according to former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who discussed the situation during a Tuesday briefing hosted by the Middle East Institute. Since last week’s march on Aleppo, for example, the Israelis reportedly intercepted an Iranian supply plane heading to Damascus, further underscoring Tehran’s weakened hand.
At this early stage in the conflict, Erdogan’s Turkey has the most to gain, potentially extracting territorial concessions from Assad and his Russian allies, according to Bolton. Moscow, however, is chiefly concerned about its two military bases in Syria, which give the Russians leverage over the region.
While it’s unclear what Syria will look like in the coming months, one possibility could see Erdogan’s Turkey "controlling Islamist forces in one part and Russia clinging to an enclave of Christian communities in another," Ledeen, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense, told the Free Beacon.
As the Middle East undergoes monumental shifts, the United States has largely sat on the sidelines.
"One of the most troubling aspects of this moment is that we’re watching tectonic plates shift, yet there’s no visible effort—or even apparent desire—to shape these outcomes to our benefit," Ledeen said. "This moment is a test of American resolve, and our adversaries are closely watching. Iran is emboldened, Russia and China are taking notes, and our allies are growing increasingly uneasy."