Oh No, Joe: Trump’s Polling Lead Up as Biden ‘Knocked Down’ in Post-Debate NYT Poll

(Reuters/Emily Elconin)
July 3, 2024

Former president Donald Trump’s advantage over President Joe Biden among registered voters has widened to 8 percentage points after Biden’s dismal debate performance last week, a Wednesday New York Times/Siena College national poll revealed.

The survey, conducted Friday to Tuesday after the debate, shows that Trump now leads Biden 49 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, a 3-point increase from last week before the debate. Trump is also ahead 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, another 3-point increase. This is the most significant lead Trump has held in a Times/Siena poll since 2015.

Biden’s debate performance did not boost Democrats’ confidence in the president’s campaign, with less than half believing Biden should be the party’s 2024 nominee, according to the poll.

As a proactive response to the Times poll, Biden’s campaign sent an all-staff memo on Wednesday morning that included internal polls showing a tighter race between Trump and Biden, according to Politico. The memo acknowledged the Times/Siena poll would be worse than their internal polls—the latest damage control move by the Biden team.

Multiple polls that have dropped since the debate show Trump’s lead growing in the race for the White House.

A leaked poll from a Democratic data firm taken in the first 72 hours after Thursday’s debate shows support for Biden falling in several swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. The poll also shows that Trump could win states that were not expected to be competitive, such as Virginia, Maine, Michigan, and Colorado.

A CBS News poll released Wednesday morning showed Trump ahead of Biden since the debate with 50 percent to 48 percent nationally and 51 percent to 48 percent in battleground states.

A Tuesday CNN poll found that 75 percent of all voters and 56 percent of Democratic voters say the Democratic Party would have a better chance at maintaining control of the White House if Biden is replaced as the 2024 candidate.

President Biden seems to be aware that his campaign outlook is bleak. He told a key ally Wednesday morning that he is still deciding whether to continue his campaign and he knows he may not be able to save his candidacy if he cannot convince the public that his debate performance was unusual for him, according to a New York Times report.

Biden, however, is publicly adamant that he will be the Democratic nominee in November.

"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party," Biden said during a campaign call on Wednesday afternoon, according to a person on the call. "No one is pushing me out. I’ve been knocked down before and counted out my whole life. When you get knocked down you get back up."

The same CNN poll ran Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats who have been floated as potential replacements if Biden ends his reelection bid. All of them show better prospects than Biden’s deficit to the former president.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom trails Trump 48 percent to 43 percent, transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg is down 47 percent to 43 percent, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is behind Trump 47 percent to 42 percent, according to theoretical situations in the survey.