Poll Shows GOP Narrowing Gap in Pennsylvania Senate Race

(Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
April 30, 2024

A new poll this week shows that in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Republican challenger Dave McCormick has closed more than half of the lead held by incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey over the past two months.

Casey is now leading McCormick by only 4 percentage points—46 percent to 42 percent—with around 12 percent of polled Pennsylvania voters remaining undecided, according to the Emerson College poll released on Tuesday. The April poll queried 1,000 registered voters and had a 3 percent margin of error.

The Democratic incumbent had led his Republican challenger by as many as 10 points in Emerson College's February poll

Casey has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2007, while McCormick, a former hedge fund manager and Treasury Department official, launched his Senate campaign in September after failing to clinch Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate nomination in 2022.

"Under the failed leadership of Joe Biden, America is in decline: Economically, militarily, spiritually," McCormick said as he announced his Senate bid. "I’m here to tell you tonight that it doesn’t have to be that way."

Casey’s shrinking margin is a cause for concern among Democrats as they fight to maintain their slim 51-49 majority in the Senate during the November general election.

The Emerson College poll came after a poll earlier this month indicated that Montana’s Senate race is tilting in favor of Republicans. While 7 percent of Montana voters are still undecided, 48 percent support Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, compared with 45 percent for incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester.