With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Washington is bracing for a reprise of the president’s now-famous unpredictable and mercurial approach to governance. But if there was one area of Trump’s presidency that was more-or-less consistent last time around, it was the Middle East.
Trump’s support for Israel was unwavering. His "Peace Through Prosperity" plan promoted a performance-based path to statehood for the Palestinians. The Abraham Accords cemented normalization between Israel and several Arab states. The maximum pressure sanctions policy on the Islamic Republic of Iran squeezed the regime financially. Trump’s hard-nosed approach to the regime in Tehran was punctuated by the January 3, 2020, killing of IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani.
Just before Trump’s return to Washington, two of his top Middle East foreign policy advisers released new books. And they may provide a hint of the president’s policies on Israel.
David Friedman, the president’s former attorney who then became America’s ambassador to Israel, encourages Israelis to "begin a national conversation regarding the future of Judea and Samaria"—the disputed territory also known as "the West Bank" inhabited by both Jews and Arabs who lay claim to it. In his book, One Jewish State, Friedman describes this sought-after real estate as "Israel’s biblical heartland," which must be preserved by Jews and Christians, alike. He asserts that "Palestinians would be receptive to life under Israeli sovereignty if accompanied by the opportunity for better health, education, and prosperity and the assurance of human dignity."
Friedman throws shade upon the "peace process" that has consistently failed to serve American interests for more than three decades. He notes that consecutive presidents, Democrat and Republican alike, have failed to achieve the two-state solution, primarily because of Palestinian rejectionism. Friedman believes that the Palestinians are simply not willing to make the compromises necessary for such a diplomatic outcome. And it is for this reason that he proposes a completely different paradigm—one that will be viewed by traditional Palestinian nationalists with disdain.
Friedman writes that the United States should embrace the Puerto Rico model for Middle East peace. He notes that Puerto Rico (Spanish for "wealthy port") is an alternative standard for Palestinian autonomy. He notes, "the residents of Puerto Rico do not vote in U.S. national elections. They do, however, benefit from well-recognized human rights and elect their civilian leaders. While not a perfect analogy to Israel, Puerto Rico ensures the human dignity of its citizens while forgoing collective national rights." Under Friedman’s vision, "Palestinians will be free to enact their own governing documents, as long as they are not inconsistent with those of Israel."
Friedman’s book suggests a wholesale change in the diplomatic paradigm that would certainly provoke controversy. By contrast, Victoria Coates proposes a series of more modest steps that would merely mark a return to sensible previous Trump policies. The final chapter of The Battle for the Jewish State enumerates these policies, most of which were conceived when Coates was deputy national security adviser for the Middle East and North Africa on the Trump National Security Council.
After a concise review of the disastrous Israel policies that have invariably failed past presidents, Coates suggests that the next administration should "reimpose the funding freeze on the Palestinians, if for no other reason than the fact that the murderers of October 7 are being rewarded under the Palestinian ‘pay for slay’ law in violation of the Taylor Force Act." Coates wisely calls for a ban on any taxpayer dollars to UNRWA—the U.N. Relief and Works Agency that has effectively served as a partner and enabler of Hamas terrorism in Gaza.
While Coates proposes a handful of punitive measures against Israel’s enemies, adversaries, and detractors, her vision for a more effective Middle East policy also includes some forward-looking steps. She endorses "lengthening the term of the memoranda of understanding that outline the U.S.-Israel security partnership from ten years to twenty-five." She notes that the "U.S.-Israel Free Trade Agreement could be expanded." She states that "America could finally and unambiguously recognize Israel’s sovereign borders"—an apparent nod to Friedman’s call for Israel to control all of the West Bank.
Coates also seeks to build upon the Abraham Accords. She notes that an effective "Saudi Arabia-Israel agreement would unlock the possibility of the broader regional security and economic alliance originally proposed by President Trump on his first trip abroad in 2017, which began with a summit meeting with Arab states in Saudi Arabia as well as a visit to Israel … the first direct presidential flight from Riyadh to Tel Aviv." In short, Coates remains bullish on a Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) also known as "Arab NATO." She notes that the United States and Israel should "work with fellow producers in MESA on a responsible energy policy, one that will keep global markets amply supplied to meet the world’s burgeoning energy demands in the coming years."
Domestically, Coates voices concern about the recent spike in anti-Israel and anti-Jewish hate. She calls on Congress to "amend and strengthen" the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 "to counter the threats America faces today," including the groups that "have promoted and lent political legitimacy to Hamas" on college campuses and main street America. She endorses the idea of Ellie Cohanim, Trump’s former deputy special envoy for anti-Semitism, to transfer the special envoy office from the State Department to the White House to "demonstrate a Presidential commitment to a broader mandate"—namely fighting anti-Semitism at home and abroad with equal vigor.
Whether the policies of David Friedman and Victoria Coates are embraced by Trump remains to be seen. Their respective places in the new administration have not yet been secured (if they will be at all).
New figures, such as National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff (among others) will have their hands full with a fragile ceasefire following a war that rocked the region for 15 months. They will assume their new roles armed with more than a few ideas floated by veterans of Trump World, and at a time when the problems of the Middle East are in desperate need of new thinking.
One Jewish State: The Last, Best Hope to Resolve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
by David Friedman
Humanix Books, 256 pp., $29.99
The Battle for the Jewish State: How Israel—And America—Can Win
by Victoria Coates
Encounter Books, 194 pp., $29.99
Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism finance analyst at the United States Department of the Treasury, is executive director at the nonpartisan think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.