Here's a conspiracy theory: He wanted to be.
Trump is a TV man. He has concerns in real estate and owns golf courses and a vineyard and makes money from things like licensed ties. But as far as steady, reliable income goes, it's hard not to think that his earnings from 11 seasons of The Apprentice were not significant for him over the last decade or so. He really enjoyed doing it. The man lives and breathes television. His campaign was launched with the vulgar pageantry of a TV awards show. He tweets about the medium compulsively. He interrupts interviews to watch his own appearances. If he loses the presidency, he'll probably start his own TV network with Roger Ailes. Like James Woods in Videodrome, he is "the Video Word Made Flesh."
Have you ever watched reality TV? My recent forays into television criticism have made me somewhat familiar with the genre. One of the most important elements of "good" reality TV is imparting a sense of high drama to the raw footage during the editing process. This involves, among other things, directing the people onscreen—personalities? actors? I'm not sure what the right word is—to throw off viewers by departing from their expectations about how they will perform. Everyone was expecting Trump to come on strong, to be brash and rude and maybe use a bad word or two on live TV in front of 110 million people. He was supposed to call his opponent a liar and her husband a rapist. He was also, I think, expected to know the names of things like Solyndra and have most of his facts straight. Maybe all that would have been interesting—but it would also have been in line with what some people were expecting or at least hoping for.
After the audience has been thrown off—and this is reinforced over and over again with endless replays set to generically intense music—you get the reactions from the judges, who, like Gordon Ramsay in Master Chef, are disappointed in the performance. Cue endless clips of anchors and analysts and strategists on CNN and MSNBC and NPR expressing their disapproval, grimly suggesting that he is on the verge of being voted off the island or whatever. Then you get to hear from the other players, in this case, Ailes and other people connected to the campaign, who say they are concerned that Trump was not ready for the debate because he found "prep" boring.
When the next episode begins, it will be with more dramatic music and flashbacks of the previous week's highs and lows: Clinton's cool confidence and her smackdowns and Trump's boring extended non-apologies and more from the media folks about how he's basically blown it already. If Trump has his way, he will come back with all the energy and enthusiasm and competence missing from the previous debate and then some. The judges and the other players will be astonished, just astonished, at what an amazing turnaround it's been! It'll be better and more interesting for everyone watching at home than if he had just done well the first time.
As theories go, this might sound stupid and unlikely and banal, but this is a stupid, unlikely, and banal election with stupid, unlikely*, and banal candidates.
*I really thought Bernie was going to turn back the tide in New York, okay?