Two new opinion polls indicate that concern is growing among Russians that sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union in response to the Ukraine crisis could trigger financial upheaval in their country.
The Russia-based National Financial Research Agency reported that 61 percent of Russians surveyed believed that sanctions "definitely" would or were "likely" to affect the financial system, according to a report in the Moscow Times.
Only 31 percent of respondents felt that a financial crisis could be avoided.
This is a significant uptick from a May 2014 poll on the same issue that indicated 55 percent saw a financial crisis as unlikely.
Additionally, the independent Levada Center in Moscow reported that the number of Russians reporting serious problems with buying food had risen to 20 percent, an increase from a poll last August that placed the same number at 6 percent. The Levada Center says the margin of error for its poll is approximately 3 percent.
The shift in public opinion is consistent with the plunge in the value of the Russian ruble over the past twelve months— it has suffered a 35 percent drop in purchasing power—and assessments by experts that sanctions have imposed significant pressure on the Russian economy.
Yet sanctions have not brought about change in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policies in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Notwithstanding several plans agreed to by the Kremlin to reduce the fighting and remove the large cache of weapons brought into Ukraine by Russian military forces, the situation in the war-torn country remains fragile, with both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian fighters jockeying for long-term control of eastern Ukraine.
Crimea is now firmly under Moscow’s political control.
Putin has responded to the sanctions by vilifying the West, carrying out aggressive military over flights around NATO nations, and by turning to the East, increasing ties to China, for example, by signing a $400 million, long-term energy deal with Beijing.
Since the start of the Ukraine crisis last spring Putin has promoted an ultra-nationalist narrative centered on the assertion that the Russian government is redressing decades, if not centuries, of injustices regarding Russia’s claims in Crimea.
The Russian government in 1994 signed an agreement with Ukraine, the United States and Great Britain to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Kiev giving up the nuclear inventory it inherited from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Putin’s policies are popular in Russia despite economic pressures. His approval ratings—reported at 86 percent in a late February Washington Times story—have soared throughout the crisis.