Donald Trump's surprise announcement—ordering the Pentagon to downgrade a major training exercise with South Korea—raised concerns on both sides of the Pacific this week. Some are unnerved by the president's statement that this decision is "based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea," since the implications are unclear.
Defense exercises are one of the prominent means through which this country has sought to create a tidier and more peaceful world. Americans do not practice with allied militaries to better wage wars of aggression, but to deter adversaries from doing so. Many observers have expressed concerns about the message the downgrade sends about our willingness to defend South Korea. The larger problem may be America's ability to do so.
One of the most important effects of these kinds of exercises is diplomatic. It is very hard to know in advance if an ally will honor the terms of a defensive treaty in case of war, so actions that demonstrate an intention to fight can reassure allies and deter enemies. In this case, U.S. and South Korean troops practicing the defense of common interests should create more stability.
Trump wants peace on the Korean peninsula, but he does not necessarily think stability is the way to get it. Unpredictability is an essential part of his negotiating strategy: He believes America's enemies are less likely to transgress when they cannot be sure of the consequences of their actions. And since he views most U.S. allies as freeloaders, he does not think it is in the nation's interest to reassure them of our support.
This runs against standard U.S. diplomatic practices since the end of World War II, but it has yielded important results. Shortly after his inauguration, NATO allies agreed to raise their defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP and spend another 1.5 percent on defense and security-related projects. South Korea has promised to reach 3.6 percent "as soon as possible."
If pushed too far though, it will backfire. China has long run a whisper campaign across the Pacific, telling America's allies that Washington is fickle and will eventually give them up. Prodding allies to do more is wise and necessary, but if they ultimately believe there is no satisfying Trump, they may make other choices Americans will regret. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi's arrival in Seoul underscores this danger. And the South Korean left, which favors appeasing Pyongyang and Beijing, will listen to him.
Trump does not seem particularly worried about that. He responds, "Our nation and, I think, other nations, frankly, whether it's Japan or South Korea, they're a lot safer if I'm president." He is calculating that Kim Jong Un is not eager to tangle with the United States under his watch, so downgrading exercises could show Seoul the consequences of dalliances elsewhere, and of allegedly dragging its feet on promised investments, at little cost.
There's a much greater concern about the exercises that has largely escaped notice during the downgrade controversy, which is that the U.S. military could be unprepared if a conflict arises. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that during a training exercise in Europe earlier this year, a Ukrainian drone team pummeled an American armored brigade using standard Army doctrine.
The military needs to adapt much faster to the changes in modern warfare. European Command, which thanks to its role supporting Ukraine has the best view of these changes, tends to be the most attuned to the new realities. But other parts of the military are lagging. For example, Central Command had difficulty handling attacks from Iranian drones that the Ukrainians encounter frequently.
It is not clear that the Army is getting the message. General Chris Donahue, who was the Army's most effective advocate for adopting drones and other new technologies, was recently dismissed over unrelated issues. The Army is phasing out its only drone battalion.
The threat on the Korean peninsula is particularly acute because North Korea's army is fighting against Ukraine and learning firsthand how to employ new technologies. Around 15,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to the Russian border province, Kursk, and many have seen combat. Pyongyang is receiving Russian help modernizing their equipment, such as long-range missiles, too.
The Korean peninsula has long been a difficult topic in U.S. foreign policy. The Truman administration excluded it from the Asian "defensive perimeter," only to have to surge forces there when the Communists attacked southward. Jimmy Carter announced he would withdraw American forces there until even he saw the folly of his big idea.
Truman's precipitous defense cuts left the Army unprepared for war when it came, and American casualties in Korea were high. Trump intends to spend big on the military, but the money needs to be well spent.
