Chinese nuclear experts have warned U.S. officials that North Korea might already have 20 atomic warheads and could soon double that arsenal, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The disclosure came at a private meeting between Chinese nuclear specialists and their U.S. counterparts. China has reportedly revised its estimates about North Korea’s domestic capacity to enrich uranium, sparking concerns among U.S. officials and their Asian allies:
A well-stocked nuclear armory in North Korea ramps up security fears in Japan and South Korea, neighboring U.S. allies that could seek their own nuclear weapons in defense. Washington has mutual defense treaties with Seoul and Tokyo, which mean an attack on South Korea or Japan is regarded as an attack on the U.S.
"I’m concerned that by 20, they actually have a nuclear arsenal," said Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford University professor and former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, who attended the closed-door meeting in February. "The more they believe they have a fully functional nuclear arsenal and deterrent, the more difficult it’s going to be to walk them back from that."
North Korea has also been developing nuclear weapons for an intercontinental ballistic missile, which could threaten the West Coast of the United States:
A well-armed North Korea may prompt the U.S. to adopt countermeasures, especially in missile defense. Adm. William Gortney, head of U.S. Northern Command, said this month that defense officials believe North Korea can now mount a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile called the KN-08. U.S. officials don’t believe the missile has been tested, but experts estimate it has a range of about 5,600 miles—within reach of the western edge of the continental U.S., including California.
An increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal feeds international concern about proliferation from a country that, U.S. officials said, previously exported nuclear technology to Syria and missile components to Iran, Yemen and Egypt.
Rep. Ed Royce (R., Calif.), a critic of the current nuclear talks with Iran, noted that similar negotiations failed to slow North Korea’s program in the 1990s. "I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran had its hands on the same playbook," he said.