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Jungle Primary Appears to Fail to Lock Out Parties in Closely Watched CA Districts

Newsom coasts to victory while Trump-backed GOP businessman Cox surprises with strong second-place finish

June 6, 2018

California's jungle-primary system, which created a convoluted slugfest on both sides of the political aisle, shut out neither Republican nor Democratic candidates from the general election in three key Southern California House races or the gubernatorial race, as party leaders worried might happen.

A late surge of GOP support swept John Cox, a Republican businessman and hardliner President Trump endorsed, into a surprisingly strong second-place finish in the election for governor, within seven points of Democratic favorite Gavin Newsom and well ahead of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

It also failed to deliver solid leads to any Democrats who spent an unprecedented $7 million on the contests trying to flip the Republican seats to their side as part of their much-touted plans of plotting a course to the House majority through once-solidly conservative districts in California that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The primary still managed to produce plenty of drama with its stunning defeat of Villaraigosa, who was expected to embody the growing power of the Latino electorate in the Golden State.

At one point in the evening, news broke that a major printing mistake that left 118,000 voter registrations off the rolls in Los Angeles County had occurred, and Villaraigosa called on the state’s election officials to extend the voting in Los Angeles until Friday.

By the late evening, having won just 12.5 percent of the vote, Villaraigosa conceded defeat and urged his voters to swing their support to Newsom.

"Deep-blue California despises Trump, but apparently not enough to turn out and vote," said Dan Schnur, a longtime Republican political consultant who served as the top communications strategist for Sen. John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign, as well as to former California GOP Gov. Pete Wilson.

"Primaries are always low turnout, so November might be different with House up for grabs. But Villaraigosa needed Latino, young voters to make top two," he continued. "Neither he nor Trump was enough to get them to the polls."

Cox, whose energy and passion captured the attention of conservative audiences in a free-wheeling way similar to Trump, said he had called Newsom that night and gloated about his surprise 2nd place finish.

He said he reminded Newsom of his previous comments on the stump that he preferred to face Cox in the general than another Democrat.

"Be careful what you wish for," Cox told a cheering audience at San Diego’s U.S. Grant Hotel where Republicans were watching the returns.

He labeled Newsom as "part of the status quo" and blamed him for a host of California's problems, including the dearth of affordable housing, high taxes, "expensive" but "failing" schools, high poverty rates and an escalating homeless problem.

"It wasn't Donald Trump that made California the highest-taxes sate in the country, it was Gavin Newsom and the Democrats," Cox said.

Newsom, who served as lieutenant governor for the past eight years, was much more scripted in his response.

"It looks like voters will have a real choice this November—between a governor who is going to stand up to Donald Trump and a foot soldier in his war on California," he said, addressing hundreds of supporters gathered at a San Francisco nightclub.

Newsom touted a play for guaranteed, single-payer health care and a "Marshall Plan for affordable housing."

Republicans also exceeded their expectations in another key election-night effort as a recall effort, prevailing in their efforts to recall Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman by an overwhelming 70 percent of precincts counted Tuesday night.

Republicans tapped into voter anger over a $52 billion gas tax and soaring prices at the pump, to pull off the rare recall of Newman, who managed to score an upset win over a Republican in 2016, then went on to cast his vote for the tax hike.

Carl DeMaio, a conservative radio talk show host who organized the recall effort and has led the gas-tax repeal, said Democrats made fatal mistakes in pushing gas-tax increases on voters while announcing plans to further penalize residents for excessive water use and mandate solar panels on the construction of new homes.

The best thing Cox did, DeMaio argued, was to get behind the gas-tax repeal "pretty early," which soon became his signature issue statewide.

DeMaio also pointed to Newsom's cross-over spending of millions of dollars to boost Cox over Villaragoisa, believing that he wouldn't pose any type of real threat and come anywhere near a 10-point range of his support. That roughly $4 million sum, actually raised Cox's profile and made him competitive, the influential talk show host argued.

Other than Cox's unexpected second place finish, the results in key House races fell along traditional GOP-leaning district loyalties with Republicans hanging on to solid leads but Democrats finishing second and splitting strong voter support among a number of Democratic candidates.

The large fields of candidates in the congressional primaries mean that solid GOP wins in the primary are no guarantees of top finishes in November, and both sides will have to pour unprecedented sums into the general election if they want to compete.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R., Calif.), a quirky lawmaker who has occupied his Orange County seat for more than three decades, with no real challenges, managed to hold onto 30 percent of the vote. Democrats had hoped that Rohrabacher's outspoken support for Russia and Trump, would create an opening for a strong Democratic candidate.

But Democrats missed their mark in the race and failed to come within striking distance of Rohrabacher, who will face Hans Keirstead, a neuroscientist who had slept with his graduate students and had punched one of them in a boozy incident after a concert.

Keirstead, who despite his #MeToo baggage still won the California Democrats' endorsement, bested Harley Rouda, the candidate national Democrats endorsed, by a one-point margin, 17.3 to 16.3, according to the latest public polling results.

Republican Scott Baugh, who Rohrabacher once mentored, fell short of his hopes to finish No. 2 and lock Democrats out of the race.

Baugh came in third place, just behind Keirstead, with 16.7 percent of the vote. Baugh's campaign had vociferously complained about late Democratic spending to prop up other Republicans to siphon off the necessary votes to slip one of their own into the No. 2 spot.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates also finished strongly in the two open seats of retiring GOP Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa.

Even though early Democratic money and organizing were successful in convincing Royce and Issa to retire, Republicans still performed strongly in those districts Tuesday night.

Results are not final yet, but it appears that Republican Young Kim, who garnered 23.3 percent of the vote will face philanthropist Democrat Gil Cisneros, who won 18.3 percent.

In the contest to replace Issa, Diane Harkey, a member of the state Board of Equalization and a former state legislator, finished with a solid lead of 24.7 percent with environmental lawyer Mike Levin, the candidate national Democrats unofficially backed, well behind her with 17 percent of the vote.

Democrats will likely blame the other Democrats in the race for costing them the win. Qualcomm heiress Sara Jacobs, who spent $1.5 million of her own money in the contest, attracted 15 percent of the vote, while another Democrat, former Marine Col. Dough Applegate won just 13.3 percent of the vote this time around despite coming within 1,600 points of defeating Issa in 2016.

If only one Democrat had run, Harkey would have faced a much tougher time forging such a strong lead. Democrats will likely spend heavily on the contest during the general to try to close the gap.