The United States needs to ramp up its military backing of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen to pressure the Iranian-backed Houthis into diplomatic talks aimed at resolving the two-year civil war, according to policy experts.
Defense Secretary James Mattis on Wednesday called for a political solution between the warring sides, urging the Saudis and Houthis to engage in negotiations brokered by the United Nations. Mattis, who delivered remarks after a two-day meeting in Saudi Arabia, reinforced American support for its ally while echoing appeals by officials in the region who say the war cannot be resolved militarily.
Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Mattis delivered a clear message to the Saudis that military action must be in conjunction with diplomacy, not in place of it.
"What I saw Sec. Mattis doing was reinforcing privately to the Saudis that we're on their side against Iran's clients, and stating publicly that this has to have a diplomatic solution, not a military one," Alterman told the Washington Free Beacon.
"To the Houthis, the message is the U.S. is going to be both more supportive of the Saudis but also more supportive of diplomacy, so you should get on board with the diplomacy," he added.
Iranian strategy in Yemen is aimed at deterring Saudi influence in the region as part of an ongoing battle for regional dominance. Iran is carrying out a similar campaign in Syria, where it supports the Bashar al-Assad regime to counter the Saudi-backed opposition and rebel groups.
The Trump administration has offered mixed messages regarding the degree to which it is willing to escalate U.S. involvement in Yemen.
U.S. officials told the Associated Press last week the administration is weighing enhanced military support to help the Saudi-led coalition fight Houthi rebels. A day later, President Donald Trump said the United States would only deploy resources in Yemen to fight against the Islamic State and al Qaeda terrorist groups.
The United States already assists the Saudi coalition through surveillance, intelligence sharing, and refueling. David Weinberg, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said enhanced support would likely include more U.S. reconnaissance and refueling flights along with additional advising by special forces.
He said such aid would likely help the coalition gain ground in coming months, but predicted it would not have an immediate impact on the war unless the Saudis move forward with plans to conquer the port city of Al Hudaydah, a critical harbor for rebel logistics and humanitarian supplies.
"U.S. officials rightly believe that more pressure on the battlefield will be needed before Yemen’s insurgents will agree to a lasting peace accord," Weinberg told the Free Beacon. "The challenge for Washington is how to help the Saudis wrap up this war while keeping civilian casualties to a minimum."
Mattis abstained from publicly cautioning Saudi Arabia and its United Arab Emirates partners against bombing Al Hudaydah. International aid groups have warned that an attack on the port city would devastate Yemen's civilian population and spur a humanitarian crisis.
Iolanda Jaquemet, a spokeswoman for the International Committee of the Red Cross, said an attack on the Hudaydah port would incur dramatic consequences on a population that is already close to famine. She said the port served as a "lifeline" for civilians living in north Yemen.
Before the war began in 2015, Yemen imported 90 percent of its goods, including food and medical supplies, primarily by sea. Shipping companies and aid groups have since pulled out, leaving the country able to import only a sliver of its needs.
"Yemen is already facing an extremely serious humanitarian situation," Jaquemet told the Free Beacon. "We are asking for a political solution, humanitarian aid is not a solution in a country that has been so impacted by war, but we see no signs of that now."