The United States still has some leverage for pushing Iraq toward a more inclusive democracy as it holds elections this week, experts said on Monday.
Iraq’s parliamentary election on Wednesday will be the first without the aid of U.S. forces to monitor polling stations and deter violence. American forces fully withdrew from Iraq in 2011 after officials failed to secure an agreement that would have kept a few thousand troops there for special operations and training.
Iraq has since faced a renewed insurgency from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a radical Sunni jihadist group. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite Muslim who is running for a third term in the election, has also been accused of stoking sectarian tensions.
Ahmed Ali, a leading researcher on Iraq at the Institute for the Study of War, said the election itself would still be a "pure Iraq process" despite attempts to influence it by external actors. The United States could diminish its post-war role in the country if it is viewed as backing a particular candidate, he added.
However, U.S. officials still have "one tangible leverage" in the form of military aid, he said. Iraq’s security forces have been badly outgunned by ISIS in the western Anbar province, where militants have imported sophisticated weapons from the civil war in neighboring Syria. The United States has so far provided small arms, missiles, and helicopters, with further pledges to sell F-16 jet fighters and Apache helicopters.
That aid should be used as a tool to help ensure a democratic transfer of power, Ali said. Maliki has consolidated control over the military and judiciary during his eight years in office.
"That military aid does have to be conditioned on ensuring a free and fair political process in Iraq and ensuring that Prime Minister Maliki does not employ the Iraq judiciary to change the outcome of the election to his benefit," he said on a conference call hosted by the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI).
"[The U.S. government] has to continue to be very proactive and not stay on the sidelines," he added.
Ali said the post-election negotiations will likely be "protracted," noting that it took 10 months to form the last government in 2010.
The long negotiating period presents a host of problems. Maliki and his allies are expecting large seat gains in the election and could resort to violence if their expectations are not met. A coalition government that excludes Sunnis or ethnic Kurds to the north could also incite bloodshed.
Additionally, Iraq’s neighbor and regional power broker Iran will seek to play an outsized role in the outcome, Ali said.
"The Iranian government has not been too involved in the pre-election period and negotiations but that will change after the election," he said. "The Iranian government will be very active and seek to unify Iraq’s Shiites and bring them all together to form a government that will be closely supportive of Iran’s interests."
Bilal Wahab, assistant professor of international studies at the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani, said Maliki’s government has failed to enact reforms that would boost employment despite the country’s oil wealth. Iraq is the third-largest oil exporter in the world.
The U.S. government has spent more than $800 billion on military operations and foreign aid in Iraq since forces toppled former President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
"Unfortunately there is very little to show for all this money," Wahab said. "Because of corruption, mismanagement, and a lack of economic and strategic thinking, Iraq’s economic potential has not been met."
While ISIS is attempting to use violence to disrupt the election, critics accuse Maliki of provoking instability to rally Shiites behind him.
Iraq’s armed forces—led by Maliki—have dismantled Sunni protest camps, arrested Sunni villagers, and partnered with Iranian-backed Shiite militias.
"Over the last eight years it has become clear that Prime Minister Maliki’s term in office has not allowed for the development of Iraq and its political institutions, and his centralization of security authorities has led to destabilization," Ali said. "He has targeted all his opponents."
Both U.S. and Iraqi military officials say the state of Iraq’s military has suffered since U.S. forces withdrew. Iraqi commanders lack basic logistical knowledge and no longer use a U.S.-built military academy and warehouse.