My must read of the day is "Fox News Poll: Independents more likely to back anti-ObamaCare candidates," in Fox News:
Most voters say ObamaCare will play an important role in their vote in this year’s elections, and over half are more inclined to back the candidate who opposes the health care law.
That’s according to a Fox News poll released Monday.
The new poll asks voters what they would do if the only difference between two congressional candidates is that one promises to fight for the health care law and the other promises to fight against it.
By a 53-39 percent margin, more voters say they would back the anti-ObamaCare candidate.
The Fox News poll also notes, "In general, the poll shows more voters continue to dislike than like the health care law—as has been the case in the Fox News poll going back to April 2010. Over that time support for the law has stayed between 36-40 percent. Today, 39 percent favor the law, while 56 percent oppose it."
And that's not a unique finding. Gallup polls since before the Affordable Care Act was voted on, consistently show the law is unpopular. The question of course, is how much this will impact the midterms and will this disapproval lead to strong voter turnout.
People didn't like the healthcare law last election cycle or the one before that. 2010 led to gains for Republicans; in 2012 they lost seats in the Senate. Approval and disapproval on broad issues matters greatly, but it doesn't always turn out voters and participation already tends to be lower in midterms.
Democrats have a difficult task ahead of them. Few will fully embrace and run on the law, as the president suggested, and much of their election strategy seems to revolve around switching the topic to issues that may rev up their base (wage gap/pay equity) and lead to a higher turnout amongst demographics that tend to not show up at the polls in a non presidential election year.
But this poll suggests that all of that might not matter because when independents get to the polls, they'll vote against the candidate who supports the Obamacare—and it will play a major role in their voting decision.
The challenge for Democrats isn't simply in getting voters out. It's more deeply rooted than that. Their issue is Obamacare and the perception of it, not among conservatives, but among independents—the group that makes or breaks elections.