Barring something nuts—extended, Florida-style recounts; faithless electors; a Red Dawn-type invasion by Putin-backed Cuban forces hoping to install their preferred candidate into the Casa Blanca—tomorrow will be, blessedly, the final day of the worst election ever. The worst until the next one, anyway, when Democratic pundits and their candidates start saying things like "Well, sure, we said Trump was an unhinged menace who is LITERALLY HITLER, but even that crazy nutjob didn't want to [enact some totally reasonable policy that we are demonizing for political gain in order to agitate our idiot voters into going to the polls]."
But yeah, for now at least, things are almost over. So how about some final election predictions? For the record, everything that follows isn't what I want to have happen, it's just what I think will happen. What would I want to have happen? Well, preferably, SMOD* would break his campaign promise to extinguish all life on Earth and instead simply smite the GOP and Democratic Party candidates, leaving us with a far more palatable choice of Kaine or Pence.
What do I think will happen? I think Clinton wins, and relatively handily. It seems as though the whole Trump campaign has been an effort to discover if it's possible to massively alienate every single voting bloc—blacks, hispanics, Asians, women, younger voters, college-educated voters, etc.—except for white men and still win election. I ... do not think that's a particularly good strategy, given the makeup of the country. Yes, the black vote will be lower than in 2008 and 2012; but the Hispanic vote already looks like it's going to be way up and polling suggests that their presence at the polls is not likely to be a boon for Trump.
Combine that with the fact that Trump could be the first Republican presidential candidate in six decades to lose the white college-graduate vote and that white women as a whole could end up voting Democratic for the first time since 1996, and you have an exceptionally narrow path to victory for Trump. He basically has to get Democratic-percentages-from-minorities levels of support from white men without a college education in every swing or swing-ish state (Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc.) to have even the slightest chance.
Anything's possible. I'm just not sure that's particularly likely.
Anyway. Here's what I think the final map will look like:
If Trump had anything resembling a ground game or a turnout operation, I'd probably flip NC and FL. He may still win them both. Everything I've read and heard suggests it's going to be incredibly close in those states. Maybe his voters' enthusiasm overcomes the Democratic GOTV operation. Maybe. We shall see!
Other predictions for tomorrow and beyond:
- Neither candidate breaks 47 percent of the popular vote.
- The GOP barely holds onto the Senate, 51-49.
- GOP handily retains control of the House.
- Merrick Garland never gets a hearing.
- The GOP effectively stymies Clinton's efforts to raise taxes and pass immigration reform for four years. However, because they eventually confirm a Supreme Court justice (on her second nomination) and regularly pass a budget, a Trump-style candidate (if not Trump himself) is the 2020 GOP nominee, winning the nomination by denouncing the collaborationist Republican Establishment.
- The map above gets worse in 2020 for Republicans.
Just one man's thoughts. Make sure to vote tomorrow! Or don't, what do I care. You'd probably just throw it away anyway.
*The Sweet Meteor O' Death, one of 2016's breakout stars.