An Estonian intelligence officer who was allegedly kidnapped by Russian officials inside his country was sentenced to 15 years in prison on Wednesday, a warning from Russia to its neighbors that is redolent of show trials from the Soviet era, analysts say.
A court in western Russia issued the sentence to Eston Kohver, an Estonian security official accused of espionage, arms smuggling, and other charges. While Russia says Kohver was spying in Russian territory, Estonia has insisted that he was abducted last September on Estonian soil near the Russian border.
Kohver was reportedly investigating smuggling operations that involved Russian officials.
Critics of the sentence say Kohver was repeatedly denied due process. His Estonian counsel did not have access to the court hearings, which were closed to the public.
Luke Coffey, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, said in an interview that the incident was reminiscent of Soviet purge trials in the 1930s when rivals to Stalin were eliminated by kangaroo courts.
"The whole situation is farcical from the [kidnapping] to the current sentence that came out yesterday," he said.
Kohver’s abduction and imprisonment was likely a Russian response to President Obama’s speech last September in Estonia, in which he attempted to reassure the Baltic states amid the Kremlin’s support for a separatist movement in Ukraine.
"An attack on one is an attack on all, and so if, in such a moment, you ever ask again, ‘Who’ll come to help?’ you’ll know the answer: the NATO alliance, including the armed forces of the United States of America," Obama said in his address.
Coffey said that Russia might also be keen to trade Kohver for Russian spies imprisoned in Estonia.
Russia "killed two birds with one stone, really," he said.
"They poked Obama in the eye, and they kidnapped an Estonian—in Estonia—in the hopes they could trade him to get Russian spies."
Kohver’s sentence comes amid heightened tensions between Russia and the Baltic states, all members of NATO and former Soviet countries. Last year, NATO aircraft were forced to intercept about 150 Russian bombers and fighters over the Baltic. The countries are also wary of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, where Kremlin-backed separatists have escalated attacks in violation of a February ceasefire.
Additionally, Russia is suspected of launching a wave of massive cyber attacks against Estonia in 2007 that targeted government websites, political parties, newspapers, banks, and companies. The cyber assault followed the removal of a Soviet war memorial from Tallinn, Estonia’s capital.
It remains unclear how U.S. officials and NATO might respond to Kohver’s sentence. John Kirby, a State Department spokesman, expressed "deep concern" about the conviction at a Wednesday press briefing and said it "raises serious questions regarding Russia’s compliance with its international legal obligations."
"We continue to raise these kinds of issues with our Russian counterparts in many different ways through many different vehicles," he said.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general, took to Twitter to say he was "deeply concerned over unfair trial & incarceration of Estonian security officer Eston Kohver by #Russia court." He included the hashtag "#FreeEstonKohver."
Coffey said that since Kohver’s capture was not an overt military action, it is difficult for NATO and U.S. defense officials to formulate a proportionate response. It is a "classic grey area" that Russia loves to exploit, he said.
He urged NATO and the Obama administration to develop a stronger, more consistent strategy against Russian aggression in the region.
"They will do what they know they can get away with," he said.
"Yesterday it’s an Estonian official. Tomorrow it could be a Polish, German, or American official."