My must read of the day is "Florida loss exposes Democrats' disarray on Obamacare," in Politico:
Republican lobbyist David Jolly’s victory over Democrat Alex Sink has many Democrats privately worried and publicly split about how to talk about Obamacare.
A few Democrats are advocating a drastic rhetorical shift to the left, by criticizing their own party for not going far enough when it passed the law in 2010.
Other Democrats plan to sharply criticize the Affordable Care Act when running for reelection.
Many plan to stick to the simple message that Obamacare is flawed and needs to be fixed—a tactic that plainly didn’t work for Sink.
Taken together, the Democratic Party is heading into an already tough election year divided—instead of united—on the very issue Republicans plan to make central to their campaigns.
I really do not believe a special election, particularly one in a congressional district, means much in the larger scheme of 2014 elections. Voter turnout is especially low for special elections, and the reality is the House doesn’t matter much anyways. Democrats are very unlikely to pick up enough seats (a net gain of 17) to take control of it. What matters are the Senate races, and I don’t think this election provides us very much insight into how voters in those races will respond.
However, the election highlights an interesting issue: Democrats’ response.
Across the board, Democrats have a mixed bag of tricks to try and deal with Obamacare in the midterms. That seems like an ineffective strategy. Instead of presenting a united front, Democrats are essentially undercutting each other at every turn. They’re going to be arguing with Republicans and the people in their own party—and perhaps most damning, it will be on the most important and most contested political issue.
Despite what some people say, the elections will be predominately decided by the health care legislation. This disagreement will not be beneficial in 2014, and it could present Democrats with yet another major obstacle.