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Pennsylvania Senate Race Moves to 'Toss Up' as Dem Bob Casey Loses Ground: Cook Political Report

Bob Casey (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
October 21, 2024

Pennsylvania’s Senate race has shifted from "lean Democrat" to a "toss up" as incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D.) loses ground to his Republican challenger Dave McCormick just two weeks before Election Day, according to the Cook Political Report.

Cook stated that the race is now competitive enough to be considered a "toss up," adding that "both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points."

As his reelection prospects slip, Casey is aiming to appeal to Donald Trump voters, highlighting in an ad released last week his "siding with" the former president on a trade and tariffs bill in 2017.

Polling released Monday by Atlas Intel shows McCormick with a slight lead over Casey for the first time in the Senate race. Around 48.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for McCormick, while 47.1 percent supported Casey. In September, Casey led McCormick 47 percent to 45 percent, according to Atlas Intel.

Pennsylvania is a key battleground state that could determine both the presidential election and which party controls the Upper Chamber. Presidential nominees Trump and Kamala Harris remain effectively tied in the Keystone State, the New York Times reported Monday.

Republicans are looking to regain control of the Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 majority. The seat vacated by retiring West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (I.) is widely expected to flip red, while Montana GOP candidate Tim Sheehy is polling ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D.).