A new report on U.S. military strategy strikes a different tone toward a number of foreign adversaries compared to the previous version, suggesting the extent to which the Obama administration has been unprepared for crises overseas, analysts say.
In the foreword to the 2015 National Military Strategy (NMS), Gen. Martin Dempsey, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, writes that the "global security environment is the most unpredictable I have seen in 40 years of service."
"Since the last National Military Strategy was published in 2011, global disorder has significantly increased while some of our comparative military advantage has begun to erode," he adds.
While the 2011 NMS expressed a desire for cooperation with foreign powers such as Russia and China, the 2015 edition raises several new concerns about the behavior of these "revisionist states." And though both reports discussed the threat of Islamist terrorism, the latest NMS does not address setbacks in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) or the proliferation of jihadist groups in the Middle East.
"When read alongside its predecessor, the 2011 NMS, the new version testifies to the array of strategic surprises that have confronted the Obama administration in recent years," wrote David Adesnik, policy director at the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI).
In 2011, the NMS said the U.S. military "will increase dialogue and military-to-military relations with Russia, building on our successful efforts in strategic arms reduction." But this year, the report noted that, "Russia’s military actions are undermining regional security directly and through proxy forces"—a reference to the Kremlin’s support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. U.S. officials have also accused Russia of repeatedly violating the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty by testing new intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, President Obama’s nominee for the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during his confirmation hearing on Thursday that Russia "could pose an existential threat to the United States" due to its nuclear forces and destabilization of its neighbors.
With respect to China, the 2011 report said the United States "seeks a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship with China that welcomes it to take on a responsible leadership role" and would pursue "a deeper military-to-military relationship with China." The new NMS, by contrast, bluntly states that, "China’s actions are adding tension to the Asia-Pacific region." Those activities include "aggressive land reclamation efforts that will allow it to position military forces astride vital international sea lanes" in the South China Sea.
China is also suspected as the culprit behind the massive cyber attack on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management that compromised the personal information of as many as 25 million government and private workers.
A Pentagon spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on the changes in the two reports.
The 2011 assessment predated the rise of the Islamic State, which exploited the chaos of the Syrian civil war to establish a "caliphate" and later expand its territory into Iraq. The United States has responded by forming a "broad coalition" of nations and training regional forces to combat IS, the 2015 NMS says.
The new report does not acknowledge the struggles of the U.S.-led coalition formed to defeat IS. Despite U.S. airstrikes, the terrorist group reportedly controls about half of Syria and seized the key Iraqi city of Ramadi in May. U.S. efforts to prepare allied Syrian rebels and Iraqi forces have fared poorly, with Ashton Carter, the defense secretary, admitting on Tuesday that just 60 Syrian fighters have been trained compared to the annual goal of 3,000 to 5,000.
Both reports criticized Iran’s behavior in the Middle East. Iran is "the most significant threat to regional stability," the NMS said in 2011. This year’s version is more explicit, calling Tehran "a state-sponsor of terrorism that has undermined stability in many nations, including Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen."
The 2015 NMS does not mention the nearly $1 trillion in budget cuts that the Pentagon could face in the current decade, but simply states that "we will not realize the goals of this 2015 National Military Strategy without sufficient resources."
The Army announced on Wednesday that it would shed 40,000 troops in the next two years in response to funding reductions.
"If the U.S. plans to recover the credibility it has lost because of the persistent weakness of its foreign policy, there is no better place to begin than rebuilding the Armed Forces, whose strength helps both to prevent war and to achieve victory if war cannot be avoided," Adesnik said.