Trump Holds Onto Narrow Lead Over Biden After Guilty Verdict, Poll Shows

June 4, 2024

A poll conducted after former president Donald Trump was convicted in New York last week shows Trump has maintained a narrow lead nationally over President Joe Biden. 

Trump is leading Biden 44 percent to 43 percent, according to the Morning Consult survey released Monday, which polled more than 10,000 registered voters after Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records on Thursday. Monday's result shows Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since before his conviction, when Morning Consult found he had a 2-point lead over Biden.

The Monday survey had a 1 percentage point margin of error.

Trump continued to outperform Biden among the candidates' respective supporters from 2020—with Trump scoring 90 percent support among 2020 Trump voters while Biden had 84 percent support from 2020 Biden voters. 

Not all results from the survey were positive for Trump, however, with Biden’s net favorability rating exceeding Trump’s for the fifth week in a row. The survey also showed a slim majority of voters approve of the jurors' verdict to convict Trump in the hush money case.

The Manhattan jury last week found Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the election in 2016. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, awaits sentencing on July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention. Trump has vowed to appeal the conviction, which could see him sentenced to prison for up to four years. 

Published under: Donald Trump , Joe Biden