Regional experts said Wednesday that Egyptian parties are unlikely to reach a consensus on constitutional reforms before elections scheduled to take place in six months, threatening more political polarization in a country reeling from mass violence.
The "roadmap" laid out by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi after the Egyptian military deposed President Mohamed Morsi on July 3 called for changes to the constitution before elections. Public pressure to oust Morsi arose as a result of his increasingly authoritarian rule, including ratification of a constitution that lacked protections for religious minorities and which purged judges from Egypt’s highest court.
Nathan Brown, a nonresident senior associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, said at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event that a committee appointed by the interim government in Egypt will likely rush through an altered constitution without seeking input from all parties.
"What is likely to come out of this is a fractious and unstable democratic environment that is formally democratic but still has the characteristics of an unstable authoritarian regime," he said.
Egyptian society remains bitterly divided. The ultra-conservative al-Nour Party backed the removal of Morsi, leader of the conservative and Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, in a move that Brown said might be an attempt to protect pro-Islamist provisions in the constitution.
The secular political movements have offered a more muddled message.
"The progressive and liberal wings have never seemed more divided. Some have rallied to Morsi’s side, while some of the country is backing the very security establishment they long condemned for violating human rights," said Carrie Wickham, political science professor at Emory University and expert on Islamic activism in Egypt.
Hossam Bahgat, founder and director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, spoke from Egypt via teleconference about the violence gripping the country. Almost 300 people have died in fighting between pro- and anti-Morsi camps.
The killing of civilians by Muslim Brotherhood supporters has provided legitimacy to the military’s call for a public mandate to combat terrorism and temporarily suspend due process rights, Bahgat said.
Rather than risking a broader civil war, as some regional observers have argued, the bloodshed could result in further enshrining a military that has maintained a power structure in Egypt for six decades, he said.
"All the talk about a return to the police state is our concern right now," he said.
"It really never went away since Mubarak was ousted. The security apparatus was kept intact."
U.S. lawmakers continue to debate how to respond to the instability in Egypt. Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) introduced an amendment to a Transportation-Housing and Urban Development appropriations bill that would eliminate the $1.3 billion in aid the U.S. currently sends to Egypt.
Paul argued Wednesday that U.S. law prohibits assistance to a country seized by a military coup, but other members such as Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) countered that the transportation bill was not the appropriate means to debate foreign policy. The amendment was tabled by a vote of 86-13.
Back in Egypt, Bahgat said the country is still waiting for the opportunity to even debate issues such as economic distress.
"We’re in a situation right now where there is no breathing space to discuss political solutions as long as the violence continues," he said. "The most significant preoccupation for us and many others is how you prevent the next massacre."