My must read of the day is "Young adults make up one-fourth of Obamacare enrollees," in Politico:
Just under a quarter of Obamacare sign-ups so far have been in the critical 18-to-35-year-old age range, the Obama administration revealed Monday, the first time officials have given demographic data about health plan enrollees.
The administration had set a goal of around 38 percent to 40 percent of the enrollees in that age bracket by the time the sign-up season ends March 31.
The administration’s monthly enrollment update showed 2.2 million people had picked health plans in the federal or state health exchanges from Oct. 1 through Dec. 28. It’s not yet clear how many have paid their first monthly premium, a requirement before coverage can begin. An additional 3.9 million people have been deemed eligible for Medicaid.
More than half of those who have signed up are between 45 and 64, an age range that tends to be sicker and costlier to cover, according to the enrollment figures released Monday by the Department of Health and Human Services.
This is the first piece of data released by HHS that really matters. Prior enrollment data, while interesting, was always incomplete because it did not provide the most important information: demographics of enrollees.
This is still missing important information: an enrollment breakdown by state. While the federal government runs many state exchanges, there is not one national insurance company. People are not enrolling in plans across state lines, so the demographic break down from a national perspective is not as valuable as one on a state-by-state basis.
Regardless, if you look at the demographics for the program as a whole, the enrollment ratio is far under the administration’s own estimates of what’s necessary to make the program viable and avoid increased premiums for the "young invincibles."
Supporters of Obamacare say that they expect young people to sign up closer to the March deadline. If the White House actually believed that, though, why would a "senior official" cite a study by the Kaiser Family Foundation to argue, "Enough younger people already had enrolled to avoid an insurance ‘death spiral’" of skyrocketing premiums?
Trying to say a significantly lower ratio is "enough" is just changing the goalposts. The reality isn’t at all what was predicted. And it isn’t good.